Lead

Small but promising signs of recovery are emerging on the Great Barrier Reef, according to scientists and surveys, offering a cautious counterpoint to the severe bleaching event that struck in 2024.

A report from the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), based on surveys of more than 120 reefs, found increases in hard coral cover in northern and central parts of the reef, with a slight drop in the south. The findings come after monsoons during the 2025-26 summer spared the reef from the worst heat, allowing some coral to recover.

"We have to place this in the context that these are small, [but] it's promising signs of recovery from the really large declines we saw from the 2024 bleaching event," said Mike Emslie, lead researcher on the long-term monitoring program.

Coverage Comparison

ABC Australia's coverage highlighted the dual narrative of relief and ongoing concern. One report focused on the dramatic recovery around Lady Elliot Island, the reef's southernmost coral cay, where about 90 per cent of bleached coral has returned to good health. The report attributed this to Cyclone Alfred, which formed in February 2025 and brought cooler water to the marine park as it meandered along the Queensland coast.

The other report centered on the broader reef-wide picture, drawing on AIMS survey data to show increases in coral cover in northern and central regions, while noting the south saw a slight decline. Both reports emphasized the role of climate change in driving coral bleaching, but also highlighted the reef's resilience when conditions allow.

Key Claims

  • Cyclone Alfred brought cooler water to the Great Barrier Reef, with the effect most visible around Lady Elliot Island.
  • About 90 per cent of the island's bleached coral has returned to good health, according to ABC Australia.
  • Coral bleaching is caused by rising water temperatures due to climate change, as explained in the reporting.
  • Cyclones can have a "cooling wake" effect on the water, lowering temperatures by about 2 degrees Celsius, said marine biologist and master reef guide Erin Watson.
  • The 2024 bleaching event was the most severe and geographically extensive in 40 years.
  • Monsoons spared the reef from the worst heat during the 2025-26 summer, according to AIMS.
  • Hard coral cover surveys show increases in cover in northern and central parts of the reef, and a slight drop in the south.
  • The forecast El Niño could mean further stress to the reef, as previous El Niños have brought significant heat stress.
  • Experts say the reef is close to the long-term average coral cover, though it remains under increasing pressure.

Context and Cautions

While the recovery signs are welcomed, experts stress the reef is not out of danger. Dr Emslie noted that a smaller bleaching event occurred in early 2025 before the monsoon brought relief, demonstrating the fragility of the ecosystem. The return of El Niño, which has historically brought heat stress, adds uncertainty to the outlook.

"We see [the reef's] inherent resilience, its ability to be able to recover when the time periods allow when there aren't so many pressures," said Roger Beeden, chief scientist of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. "But the counterpoint to that is that it's under increasing pressure."

The recovery around Lady Elliot Island offers a vivid example. Before-and-after images show bleached coral in February 2024 regenerated to healthy coral by early 2026. Erin Watson described the change: "The water temperatures dropped about 2 degrees Celsius. Now if you go out for a snorkel, the corals that did bleach, you wouldn't even notice had bleached in the first place."

Scientists are now eagerly awaiting a spawning event later this year, which could further boost coral recovery. However, the underlying threat of climate change remains, with rising water temperatures identified as a key driver of bleaching. As Ms Watson explained, when temperatures drop, corals can take back the algae they expelled and recover, but prolonged heat can be fatal.