Six Months of War: Iran's Hard-Line Turn and the Battle for the Strait of Hormuz

It has been six months since the United States and Israel launched joint missile strikes on Iran, a conflict that has killed thousands, triggered a global oil crisis, and reshaped the political landscape of the Middle East. What began on February 28 with the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials in Tehran has evolved into a protracted war that now centers on economic pressure and control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump, who had promised a short conflict, has increasingly framed the war as a victory, claiming through bombs and blockade that he has devastated Iran's leadership, military, and economy. But the conflict grinds on, and the administration this week signaled a shift in strategy, turning from military action to economic pressure in an effort to "finish off" Iran.

The Human Toll and the Battle for the Strait

The war has exacted a heavy price. According to the World Health Organization, at least 3,375 Iranians have been killed and more than 33,000 injured. The Pentagon reports 18 US service members killed and hundreds wounded. Iranian officials have said the country has suffered $270 billion in direct and indirect damage. A separate estimate, reported by Al Jazeera, puts the total death toll between 8,000 and 10,000, including combatants and civilians.

The conflict has spread beyond Iran's borders, reaching as far as the Caspian Sea, and has drawn in regional proxies. Hezbollah has clashed with Israel, and the Houthis have blockaded Saudi Arabia in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Iran has struck infrastructure in Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, which those states called a violation of sovereignty.

At the heart of the war is the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas transited before the conflict. Iran has largely shut down the strait, with shipping traffic slumping from more than 100 ships per day to an average of about five. The US responded with its own naval blockade, cutting off Iranian oil exports. Trump declared Thursday that the strait is open, saying 24 vessels passed through a day earlier, a fraction of the roughly 130 that traversed it daily before the war.

The Shift to Economic Warfare

The administration is now focusing on economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a campaign called "Operation Economic Outcast," intended to target Tehran and its global financial links through ramped-up sanctions. So far, the administration has issued warnings to nations to cut trade but has not announced secondary sanctions. China, Iran's biggest trade partner, expressed opposition to "illegal unilateral sanctions" in response to the administration's broad threats.

Trump, pressed on why he wasn't already sanctioning Chinese banks, said, "Who said I'm not? You don't know if I'm doing it. I don't have to announce everything, do I?" The Treasury Department announced Friday it was taking steps that could lead to eventually severing Banque Misr, Egypt's second-largest bank, from the US financial system.

The economic war is taking a toll. Iran faces its worst economic crisis since the 1980s, according to the Eurasia Group, with the economy expected to shrink by 4% this year, per the International Monetary Fund. The rial has plummeted, and food prices have surged. The blockade has cut oil revenue by at least $6 billion, according to some estimates. But Iran has shown resilience, selling discounted oil and establishing opaque shipping and financial networks, as geopolitical risk analyst Aarathi Krishnan noted. "This administration has completely underestimated the Iranian resolve. This is not new to the Iranian regime," Krishnan said.

Iran's Hard-Line Consolidation

In Tehran, the leadership has consolidated around a core of hard-line military commanders and clerics. A series of senior appointments announced on August 11 and 12 placed veteran Revolutionary Guard figures at the heart of Iran's leadership. Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander who led the force through the Iran-Iraq War, was appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Hossein Taeb, a cleric who headed the Basij during crackdowns on the 2009 protests, was named commander of the volunteer force. Ahmad Vahidi, a former defense minister, was confirmed as commander of the Revolutionary Guard, with Ali Ozmaei leading its navy and Ali Abdollahi as chief of staff.

These appointments signal a determination to maintain confrontation with Washington. Rezaei has adopted a defiant tone, warning, "If Trump wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner." He also threatened that "if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported" from the Persian Gulf. At the same time, President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for an end to the war, saying, "It would be better to bring the war to an end, since today we enjoy power and dignity and the entire world approved our victory, and the S. is hated." This reflects what Tehran-based analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi described as "serious differences over the future path of the country."

A War Without Clear Victors

The war has not produced a decisive outcome. Trump claims about 82% of Iran's missiles are gone and its navy is degraded, and he has declared that the US has "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capabilities. But Iran still possesses 440kg of highly enriched uranium, and the US and Israel claimed in February that Tehran was just weeks away from developing nuclear weapons, a contradiction that experts have noted.

Iran has continued to fire missiles, including a long-range missile in July that killed three US soldiers in Jordan. The June ceasefire agreement, in which Iran agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon, unraveled within weeks after Iran attacked ships, and the 60-day memorandum of understanding expired with nothing to replace it. Trump has shown little interest in returning to negotiations, saying he is "not in a hurry" to bring Iran back to the table.

Observers see no outright victor. Clark Summers, a US military veteran and professor at Belmont Abbey College, said the US "can rightly assert that these ends have been achieved," but noted the difficulty of assessing how long before Iran rebuilds. Alam Saleh, an Iranian expert at the Australian National University, disagreed, saying, "Both of them have not achieved anything." The war, now in its seventh month, continues to exact costs on both sides, with no end in sight.