Shipping in Strait of Hormuz at a standstill despite US-Iran ceasefire

Lead

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill days after the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, according to ship-tracking data and maritime analysts. The narrow waterway, which normally carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, has seen only a handful of transits per day, far below the pre-war level of more than 130 vessels daily.

Coverage Comparison

Reports from multiple outlets, including ABC Australia, Al Jazeera, Dawn, France 24, The Guardian, the Jerusalem Post, and TASS, all point to continued minimal traffic despite the truce. ABC Australia reported that in the 24 hours after Iran announced safe passage would be possible, only seven ships appeared to make the journey, with six being bulk carriers that took a route along Iran's coast rather than the typical shipping lane. Al Jazeera cited data from Kpler showing five vessels crossed on Wednesday and seven on Thursday, with more than 600 vessels still stranded in the Gulf according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. The Guardian noted that independent analysts observed no change in traffic, with maritime intelligence firm Windward counting 11 transits on Wednesday—about the same as prior days.

Dawn reported that traffic stood at well below 10 percent of normal volumes on Thursday, with seven ships passing in the previous 24 hours. The Jerusalem Post quoted Noam Raydan of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy saying activity was "still very weak," at five to six vessels, and that this was "not normal flow."

There are some discrepancies in reported numbers, with different outlets citing slightly different vessel counts and days. ABC Australia reported seven ships in a 24-hour window, while Al Jazeera reported five on Wednesday and seven on Thursday, and Windward cited 11 on Wednesday. These differences may reflect varying measurement times and data sources.

Key Claims

• Traffic levels: All outlets agree that traffic is at a small fraction of normal. Pre-war levels are cited as 120-140 transits per day, with current numbers in single digits.

• Iranian control measures: Iran has issued instructions for vessels to use a specific route through Iranian territorial waters, around Larak Island, to avoid naval mines. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has communicated these instructions, according to Tasnim news agency, as reported by Dawn. Ships must coordinate passage with Iranian authorities.

• Tolls: Multiple reports indicate Iran is imposing tolls on vessels. The Guardian reported that Windward said ships must pay up to $1 per barrel for outbound oil, in cryptocurrency. The Jerusalem Post cited senior Iranian officials telling the New York Times that Iran would impose a roughly $2 million toll on each container ship. Dawn reported that Iran's share of tolls would be shared with Oman.

• US reaction: US President Donald Trump accused Iran of not honoring the ceasefire, saying on Truth Social that Iran was doing a "very poor job" of allowing oil through the strait, as reported by Al Jazeera.

• Blockade dynamics: The Guardian reported that both the US and Iran are enforcing blockades—Iran against shipping through the strait, and the US against Iranian ports. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Kharg Island storage would soon be full and Iranian oil wells would be shut in.

• Israel-Lebanon factor: The Guardian reported that Iran threatened to lock up the strait if Israel continued strikes on Lebanon, which killed at least 254 people, according to Lebanon's Civil Defence. Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel over ceasefire violations.

• Negotiations: Talks are set to begin in Islamabad, with Pakistan brokering the ceasefire. Iran has put forward a 10-point proposal that includes Iranian control over the strait. The Jerusalem Post and TASS reported that the talks may be direct.

• Vessel case: TASS reported that the Italian car-carrier Grande Torino, owned by Grimaldi, remains unable to cross the strait, with crew safe and awaiting clarification on ceasefire provisions.

Perspectives

United States

The Trump administration has accused Iran of failing to implement the ceasefire and continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iranian ports, aiming to cut off the regime's revenue from oil exports. President Trump has framed the ceasefire as a victory but has also threatened further action if Iran does not reopen the strait.

Iran

Iran has asserted control over the strait, issuing routing instructions and imposing tolls. Tehran says this is part of the ceasefire terms and a legitimate exercise of its sovereignty over the waterway, which it shares with Oman. Iran has also threatened to block the strait entirely if Israel continues strikes on Lebanon.

Pakistan (mediator)

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is mediating between the parties and remains outwardly hopeful for a deal, with talks scheduled in Islamabad. Pakistan's role has been central to arranging the ceasefire.

Israel

Israel has continued military operations in Lebanon, which Iran has cited as a threat to the ceasefire. Israeli officials have also raised the idea of rerouting Gulf exports to the Mediterranean as a long-term alternative to the strait.

Maritime industry and analysts

Shipping companies and maritime security firms, including Ambrey, have warned of persistent risks for vessels not authorised by Iran, and that even approved ships have been turned back. Analysts, such as Kpler's Ana Subasic, expect transit capacity to remain constrained at 10-15 passages a day even if the ceasefire holds.