Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila on track to hit far north Queensland three weeks after Narelle tore through

Lead

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, which has been fluctuating in intensity over the past week, is now expected to reach the Queensland coast early next week, though forecasters say it will be significantly weaker than when it ravaged parts of the Pacific. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has downgraded the system to a tropical low, but warns that heavy rainfall and flooding remain likely, particularly in areas still recovering from Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting from ABC Australia and The Guardian outlines a storm that has been unpredictable in both path and strength. Multiple bulletins over the past week, all from ABC, show the system's evolution: it intensified to category five before weakening, stalled in the Solomon Sea, and has been downgraded in stages. The Guardian's coverage, published on Monday, notes that forecasts remain uncertain, with meteorologist Helen Reid saying, "It's still jury's out on this one."

While all sources agree on the general threat to Far North Queensland, they differ on specifics such as timing and intensity. Early reports suggested landfall could occur as early as Sunday, while later bulletins push it to Monday or Tuesday. The BOM's senior forecaster Shane Kennedy described Maila as "a real tease," highlighting the difficulty in predicting its trajectory.

Key Claims

• Weakening trajectory: Multiple reports confirm Maila has weakened from a category five system to a tropical low, with the BOM expecting it to continue losing strength as it approaches Australia. However, a single report from ABC noted it could intensify back to category four before weakening again.
• Landfall timing and location: Forecasts vary, but most sources indicate a crossing of Cape York Peninsula between Sunday and Wednesday. The storm is expected to make landfall north of Cooktown, though some scenarios have it swinging south toward Cairns or missing the coast entirely.
• Potential impacts: Even as a weaker system, heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely, with up to 100 millimetres possible in some areas. A marine wind warning is in place from Cooktown to the New South Wales border.
• Comparison to Cyclone Narelle: Maila is expected to be less intense than Narelle, which made landfall as a category four system on 20 March and caused significant damage.

Perspectives

Meteorologists emphasize the uncertainty of Maila's path, noting that weak steering winds have caused the storm to stall. "Tropical cyclones still need something to move them around," said senior meteorologist Liam Smart. Tourism operators, still recovering from Narelle's impact, are urging visitors not to cancel plans, highlighting the large area potentially affected.

Residents in Far North Queensland, already dealing with wet catchments from previous rainfall, face the risk of river rises and flooding. The BOM has indicated a flood watch may be issued over the weekend.

Elsewhere in Queensland, above-average temperatures are expected, with scattered showers along the east coast, but the main concern remains Maila's approach.