Severe storms, isolated tornado possible in New York Wednesday

Severe Storms and Isolated Tornado Risk Forecast for New York Wednesday

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has warned that the greatest risk for severe weather in New York is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, as a frontal zone lingering across the Great Lakes keeps the weather pattern unsettled through midweek.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later Wednesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday night, according to the National Weather Service. Some storms could become severe, with the greatest concern from late Wednesday afternoon through the first half of Wednesday night. Localized damaging wind gusts are the primary severe-weather threat, while isolated large hail is also possible, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A more significant severe weather and flash flooding threat will follow Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night across western and central New York, with damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado risk all possible, as reported by the Staten Island Advance.

The National Weather Service in Albany said hourly rainfall rates could reach 1 inch or more, with total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches possible across the northern Capital Region and Mohawk Valley. A short-fuse flood watch may be needed for that period. The Capital Region and Central New York face an elevated risk of training thunderstorms and flash flooding Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with precipitable water values running 1 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

Heat index values could reach the lower 90s Wednesday in parts of Western and Central New York, according to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.

Tuesday Storms and New Jersey Thunderstorm Watch

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across much of New York state Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with the greatest threat centered on western Long Island, New York City, the Lower Hudson Valley and southwestern Connecticut, according to the National Weather Service.

In the New York City metro area, a backdoor cold front will sink southwest through the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, with instability values and wind shear sufficient to support strong to severe storms. Storms are expected to diminish south and west of the area by around 8 m.

All 21 counties in New Jersey have been placed under a severe thunderstorm watch Tuesday evening, as reported by com. The watch was issued by the National Weather Service at about 4:30 m. and is scheduled to remain active until midnight. The New York City metro area is included in the thunderstorm watch zone, along with the Philadelphia metro region.

Waves of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to start firing up in some areas of New Jersey by 5 m. or 6 m. as a cold front moves across the region from the north. Forecasters say hot temperatures and high humidity could add fuel to some of the thunderstorms, making them more intense. Some storm cells could create spin in the atmosphere and generate a tornado.

Some of tonight's thunderstorms could pack heavy moisture, with a potential to cause isolated flash flooding along with wind gusts of 65 to 70 mph, posing a risk of damaged trees and power lines, according to com.

In western New York, the National Weather Service in Buffalo warned that a strong mid-level trough advancing across Ontario and Quebec will tap into a reservoir of instability near Lake Erie beginning late Wednesday afternoon, with clusters of convection capable of bowing segments, supercell structures and damaging wind gusts moving southeast through Wednesday night.

The stormy weather pattern is expected to continue on Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for additional thunderstorms that could become severe and spawn isolated tornadoes in New Jersey, forecasters say.

Looking Ahead to the Holiday Weekend

Thursday will bring another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the state, with the marginal to slight severe risk again focused on western portions of the forecast areas, according to the Staten Island Advance.

A drier, cooler and less humid air mass is expected to build in for the Labor Day holiday weekend beginning Friday, according to the National Weather Service.

Residents in low-lying and poor-drainage areas should be prepared for ponding and localized flooding during heavy downpours, as local officials and weather services advise.