Lead

Seven OPEC+ countries that voluntarily cut oil output produced 22.988 million barrels per day in June 2026, missing their agreed collective target by 6.56 million bpd, according to an OPEC report cited by TASS. The planned production target for the seven nations was set at 29.548 million bpd, while actual output stood at 22.988 million bpd. Total production rose by 1.166 million bpd month-on-month but still remained 6.56 million bpd below the plan.

Coverage comparison

TASS, in its reporting of the OPEC data, provided several sets of figures depending on the scope of the analysis. One report covered the seven countries subject to voluntary cuts, while another covered the broader OPEC+ group, excluding Libya, Iran, Venezuela, and the UAE. A separate report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), also cited by TASS, estimated a larger shortfall of about 7.51 million bpd, with actual production at 26.38 million bpd against a target of 33.89 million bpd. The IEA also reported a different month-on-month production increase for the seven countries: 2.17 million bpd, compared with the OPEC figure of 1.166 million bpd.

Discrepancies also appear in the country-level changes reported by OPEC versus the IEA. According to OPEC, Saudi Arabia reduced output by 99,000 bpd in June, while the IEA reported an increase of 900,000 bpd. Similarly, OPEC said Russia's output fell by 61,000 bpd; the IEA reported an increase of 120,000 bpd. These differences may stem from varying methodologies or baselines but were not explained in the source material.

Key Claims

  • The OPEC report on the seven voluntary-cut countries shows they produced 22.988 million bpd in June 2026, short of the 29.548 million bpd target by 6.56 million bpd (TASS, citing OPEC).
  • Russia's shortfall: Russia fell 834,000 bpd short of its June quota, with actual production at 8.928 million bpd (OPEC via TASS). Russia's quota, including voluntary restrictions, was 9.762 million bpd.
  • Other countries' shortfalls: Iraq was 2.382 million bpd short of its quota, Saudi Arabia was 3.444 million bpd short, and Kuwait was 1.176 million bpd short. Algeria nearly met its quota, falling 2,000 bpd short, while Kazakhstan and Oman exceeded their plans by 1.152 million bpd and 126,000 bpd respectively.
  • Causal attribution: The sharp quota underperformance of several Middle Eastern states is attributed to the conflict in the region, according to the OPEC report.
  • Compensation extension and quota increase: At their latest meeting, the seven countries agreed to extend the compensation period for past overproduction until the end of December 2026 and to raise August quotas by 188,000 bpd.
  • Broader OPEC+ shortfall (OPEC data): Excluding Libya, Iran, Venezuela, and the UAE, overall OPEC+ production was 27.633 million bpd against a plan of 34.744 million bpd, a shortfall of 7.111 million bpd. The UAE, which withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, increased output by 1.642 million bpd to 3.809 million bpd.
  • IEA estimates: The IEA estimated the aggregate shortfall for OPEC+ countries at about 7.51 million bpd, with production at 26.38 million bpd versus a target of 33.89 million bpd. OPEC+ total production (including all members) rose to 32.44 million bpd in June.

Context and notes

The figures cited here come from TASS reports published on July 10 and 13, 2026. The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ took effect on May 1, 2026, and is excluded from the OPEC shortfall calculations. The compensation period extension and the August quota increase were agreed at the latest meeting of the seven countries.