‘Saudel’ can turn into super typhoon before entering PAR on Monday

Typhoon Saudel may reach super typhoon strength before entering PAR

MANILA, Philippines — Typhoon Saudel could intensify into a super typhoon before entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday, August 24, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Once inside PAR, the typhoon will be given the local name Obet.

As of 3 a.m. Monday, Saudel was located about 1,660 kilometers east-northeast of extreme Northern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 215 kph, as reported by philstar.com. The typhoon was moving west-northwestward at 30 kph.

An earlier advisory from Rappler placed Saudel 1,950 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon at 3 p.m. Sunday, with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h and gustiness of up to 205 km/h.

PAGASA forecasts that Saudel will cross the northeastern boundary of PAR on Monday morning or afternoon and could reach super typhoon strength before entry. However, the typhoon is likely to remain over the Philippine Sea and exit PAR by Tuesday, August 25. If it adopts a more westward track, it could linger inside PAR beyond Tuesday, as noted by philstar.com. Rappler also reported that Saudel may be downgraded back to a typhoon after reaching its peak intensity.

Despite its strength, Saudel is not expected to directly affect Philippine weather or sea conditions over the next three days, PAGASA said in a report by philstar.com. Instead, the rains affecting Luzon on Monday are being driven by the southwest monsoon, or habagat, which has been weak since Thursday, August 20, but is still affecting the region, according to Rappler.

Weather specialist Aldczar Aurelio of PAGASA told The Manila Times that Typhoon Saudel and Tropical Depression Inari (formerly Neneng) are strengthening the southwest monsoon, which is affecting northern and central Luzon. "The effect of the southwest monsoon mostly in Luzon will last for the next four days," he said.

Regional rain forecasts

Batanes may receive 50 to 100 millimeters of rain, with possible flooding or landslides, as reported by philstar.com. Aurelio reminded residents in Batanes to prepare "because of the expected intense or heavy rains that can possibly cause a flood or landslide."

Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, the rest of Cagayan Valley, Cavite, Batangas, and Rizal may experience scattered rain and thunderstorms due to the southwest monsoon, according to philstar.com. Moderate to at times heavy rain in these areas may also trigger flash floods or landslides.

The rest of Luzon will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of sudden downpours due to thunderstorms, as The Manila Times reported.

Moderate to strong southwesterly winds are forecast over northern and western Luzon, where waves may reach 3.4 meters, philstar.com reported.

Other tropical systems

PAGASA is also monitoring two tropical depressions outside PAR. One was located 1,330 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 3 a.m., while Gaenari, formerly Tropical Depression Neneng, was 520 kilometers north of Itbayat, Batanes, according to philstar.com.

Rappler reported that the tropical depression east of the PAR eastern boundary could enter the region before Saudel, and its movement could affect which system gets named first. As of 3 p.m. Sunday, that tropical depression had maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h, Rappler said. If it enters PAR, it would be named Obet, followed by Pilandok for the next system.

Gaenari, formerly Neneng, weakened into a low pressure area last Thursday before redeveloping into a tropical depression on Saturday, August 22, according to Rappler. The system was moving southwest toward China at 15 km/h and had no impact on the Philippines.

PAGASA previously estimated that up to four tropical cyclones may develop within or enter PAR in August. So far this month, three have occurred: Tropical Depression Luis, Tropical Storm Maymay (Kujira), and Neneng, Rappler reported.

Outlook

Saudel is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon, which could bring significant rainfall starting Wednesday, August 26, according to PAGASA Weather Specialist Charmagne Varilla, as reported by Rappler. The typhoon is likely to remain far from the Philippine landmass, but its exact track will determine how long it stays within PAR and how much it influences local weather patterns.