Rwanda: Govt Steps Up Flood Preparedness As Strong El Niño Looms

Introduction

Forecasters are warning of a very strong El Niño during the October-December 2026 rainy season, prompting the Rwandan government to step up preparations for floods, landslides and other weather-related disasters. The warning was issued during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 74), held in Rwanda, where scientists and policymakers gathered to discuss the regional seasonal outlook prepared by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

The Scientific Forecast

El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, can alter weather patterns across the globe. In East Africa, it is often associated with wetter-than-normal rainy seasons. According to Nicholas Savage, there is a 99 per cent chance of El Niño and a 96 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño during October to December.

The regional outlook indicates that most of the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the season. The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to be warmer and wetter than usual in the last quarter of 2026 as El Niño strengthens. October to December is a critical rainfall period, contributing up to 70% of total annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and up to 40% in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda.

The wetter conditions are attributed to the El Niño event that has developed, as well as an expected positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole through August-October 2026. Scientists used seven global climate models and three forecasting approaches to develop the seasonal outlook, which divides the region into rainfall probability zones. Some areas show as much as a 90 per cent chance of above-normal rainfall, including southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya.

Masilin Gudoshava said September is expected to be relatively dry before rainfall increases later in the year. There is a high probability many parts of the region will exceed 300 millimetres of rainfall during the season, with areas expected to have a significant likelihood of exceeding 400 millimetres including parts of Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania. The forecast also indicates a high chance of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm in parts of central to southern Somalia, central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin region, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania.

The timing of rains is expected to vary, with early to normal onset more likely across much of the eastern and southern parts of the region. The temperature outlook indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures, with the highest probabilities over eastern Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and much of Somalia. Analogue years 1997 and 2023 have been identified as relevant for the current climate conditions.

Rwanda's Preparedness

Fidèle Bingwa, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Environment, said Rwanda's experience with heavy rainfall shows how quickly extreme weather can develop into a multi-sectoral disaster. "For Rwanda, this means preparing for the potential impacts of heavy rainfall, including floods and landslides, and the effects these may have on communities, agriculture and infrastructure," he said.

Bingwa said the government's climate resilience strategies focus on improved rainfall monitoring and forecasting, flood early warning systems, catchment management, drought preparedness and stronger disaster response mechanisms. He called on humanitarian organisations, development partners, financial institutions, the private sector and regional scientific institutions to invest more in climate services and early warning systems. He also stressed that vulnerable groups — including women, children, older persons, persons with disabilities, smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities and residents of informal settlements — should be considered when designing climate services and disaster preparedness measures.

Aimable Gahigi, Director General of Meteo Rwanda, said El Niño has implications for nearly every sector of the economy. The Ministry in charge of Emergency Management (MINEMA) urged communities and institutions to prepare before the rains intensify.

Regional Cooperation and Outlook

The seasonal climate outlook was released by ICPAC together with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the region. ICPAC acts as a WMO regional climate centre and is part of the WMO Coordination Mechanism for humanitarians. The forum was attended by representatives from the 10 countries of the Greater Horn of Africa — Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda — as well as key climate-sensitive sectors.

Abdi Fidar, Director of ICPAC, said accurate forecasts alone would not protect communities unless governments turned them into practical action.

The above-average rainfall is expected to improve pasture and water availability for livestock, but excessive rainfall raises flood risk, which could lead to loss of life, crop destruction, damage to critical infrastructure, elevated risk of water- and vector-borne disease outbreaks, and disrupted access to health and nutrition services.

The WMO will issue its next El Niño Update on 3 September, providing authoritative global information to support decision-making. NMHSs will issue detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories as part of the wider mobilization of the WMO community.