Russia's Starlink Copycat Struggles in Orbit, Raising Stakes for Ukraine

A Satellite System in Trouble

Russia's ambition to field its own satellite internet system, Rassvet, has stumbled badly. None of the 16 satellites launched on 19 July as part of the program reached their planned orbit, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which cited data from the live satellite tracker N2YO. Most are sitting at altitudes of 300 to 400 kilometres, well short of the intended 870-kilometre operational altitude, the ISW report said.

At least two of the satellites appear to be heading for reentry into Earth's atmosphere, the ISW reported. Satellites flying at lower altitudes face greater atmospheric drag, burn through fuel faster and have shorter operational lifespans, meaning even if they stabilise, they are unlikely to last as long as Russia had planned.

This was not the first setback for Rassvet. The system began with a launch on 23 March, when a spacecraft carried 16 satellites into orbit, according to EUobserver. Another 17 followed in July. Astronomer Jonathan McDowell analysed the movements of the second batch and produced a graph showing that most reached an altitude just above 500 kilometres above the surface, far below the planned 800 kilometres. The Military Informant Telegram channel reported that the Byuro-1440 design bureau was struggling with serious problems involving the July batch, with one satellite having fallen to Earth, two having trouble maintaining altitude at 350 to 360 kilometres, and the rest stable at 511 kilometres.

Euronews reported that of the 16 March-launched satellites, 12 reached their intended altitude of 550 kilometres and remain there. Those 12 give Russian forces two daily windows of connectivity with ground terminals, lasting up to 90 minutes in total over Ukraine, according to the ISW. But a fully functional Rassvet would allow Russia to direct drones and missiles over greater distances and with greater precision, as satellite internet has become central to how both sides fight the war. Ukraine's access to Starlink has let its forces fly reconnaissance and strike drones, coordinate artillery, and stay connected in areas where Russian strikes have destroyed ground infrastructure.

The stakes are high. The Rassvet-3 system could fundamentally influence the course of the war, but it is not yet working as it should, as EUobserver put it. Russia's plans called for 156 Rassvet satellites by the end of this year, 292 in 2027, 610 in 2028, and 900 by 2035, according to EUobserver, though by comparison there were already 10,397 operational Starlink satellites in space as of June. Serhii Beskrestnov, then an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister, said on 31 May that Russia would need at least 200 to 250 satellites in orbit to achieve continuous, stable connectivity, Euronews reported.

Russia's launch capacity is a bottleneck. The country has carried out only six to eight Soyuz-2.1b launches across all space and commercial missions since 2022, Euronews reported. Ukrainian forces struck the Progress Space Rocket Center, which produces Soyuz-type launch vehicles, overnight between 14 and 15 August, and attempted a strike against the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on 23 August, two days before Russia launched a Soyuz-2.1b vehicle reportedly carrying a GLONASS-K1 satellite. Bureau 1440, the Russian aerospace firm developing the Rassvet satellites, has said it plans 'dozens' more launches to deploy hundreds more satellites, Euronews reported.

Ukraine has also moved to counter Russian use of Starlink. Ukraine's defence ministry said in early February that Starlink terminals being used illicitly by Russian forces had been deactivated after Kyiv and SpaceX moved to a 'whitelist' system restricting the network to verified terminals, Euronews reported.

Civilian Toll Mounts

The satellite program's troubles come against a backdrop of continued assault on Ukrainian cities. Kyiv is the target of almost continuous air raids, with Russian drones and missiles killing at least 12 people in a recent wave of attacks, EUobserver reported. As many as seven were killed at a railway depot, and another four lived in Boryspil, one of Kyiv's suburbs. Russia used a combination of drones and missiles, with Ukrainian forces reporting they had shot down 10 weapons in one category, including Zircon missiles and missiles originally designed for air defence in S-400 systems, as well as Iskander missiles and North Korean KN-23 missiles.

The broader human cost is stark. Since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has verified at least 16,874 civilians killed and 51,173 injured, as of the end of July, Euronews reported. In a report published on 13 August, HRMMU said July 2026 was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since March 2022, with at least 437 killed and 2,610 injured, driven by a sharp rise in aerial bombardment and glide bomb attacks alongside continued long-range missile and drone strikes on cities far from the front line.

Ground Developments Under Scrutiny

On the battlefield, the situation is fluid and contested. The Russian defence ministry announced the capture of two villages north of Orikhiv, but this almost certainly has nothing to do with reality, EUobserver reported. The OSINT account Playfra focused on a small section within the triangle formed by Orikhiv, Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka, and reported that while on the Russian map the entire area is considered occupied, in practice both villages remain under Ukrainian control. Finnish analysts from Black Bird Group concurred.

The village of Novoselivka illustrates the discrepancy. During the summer, Russian flag-bearers entered it; the Ukrainians repeatedly demonstrated that they had cleared the village, but the Russians nevertheless continue to claim that they captured it, EUobserver said. On a recent Sunday, a photograph of a Ukrainian soldier at the entrance to Novoselivka circulated, a village that even the most realistic Russian maps had placed safely behind Russian lines only a week earlier.

In the Lyman sector, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, and Russian sources acknowledge worsening conditions. The influential Rybar Telegram channel admitted that "the flow of evidence indicating a deterioration of the situation on the Lyman axis is gradually intensifying," listing developments including Ukrainian units occupying positions in the Hrekivka area and attacking south of Ridkodub, the presence of Ukrainian forces recorded in Novoselivka, and cargo ground drones spotted south of Lyman. The Two Majors Telegram channel offered a more cautious view, reporting that "enemy counterattacks continue on several sectors of the Lyman axis, with the aim of tying down Russian armed forces" and that while Ukrainian forces have "managed to occupy insignificant areas," the initiative remains with Russian troops.

Infrastructure and Supply Pressures

The systematic Russian campaign is also manifesting itself in supply problems. Photographs show half-empty shelves in supermarkets, EUobserver reported. Russia has begun systematically publishing videos of successful drone strikes, something it did not do in the past and for which it was criticised by Z channels. A large Nova Poshta terminal in Odesa was destroyed. Ukrainian satellite imagery of a Russian base in Oryol used to launch attack drones reveals its extensive size, with launch ramps visible, including two damaged, though individual drones capable of reaching the base cannot be enough to destroy it.