Russia’s shadow fleet continues passing UK waters despite boarding threat

Lead

Despite the UK's threat to board vessels from Russia's 'shadow fleet,' the number of Russian-sanctioned ships passing through UK waters has not declined, according to a Reuters analysis and reporting by The Guardian. At least 98 Russian vessels subject to UK sanctions transited UK waters in the month following Prime Minister Keir Starmer's March 25 threat, roughly the same as in each of the preceding three months.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting from The Guardian and the Jerusalem Post, which carried a Reuters analysis, highlights different aspects of the situation. The Guardian focuses on the Royal Navy's active tracking of Russian naval escorts, describing an increased Russian maritime presence in response to UK threats. The Jerusalem Post, citing Reuters, emphasizes the lack of impact on the number of shadow fleet vessels and the absence of any boarding or detention announcements.

Key Claims

• At least 98 Russian vessels subject to UK sanctions transited UK waters in the month after Starmer's March 25 threat, about the same as each of the last three months, according to LSEG tracking data cited by Reuters.
• No clear impact on the number of Russian vessels passing through UK waters was observed, and no boardings or detentions were announced, as reported by Reuters.
• The tracking data shows 63 ships passed within 12 nautical miles of the coastline in the English Channel, and 35 traveled through Britain's Exclusive Economic Zone, mainly around north Scotland, per Reuters.
• At least 10 ships engaged in 'spoofing' when crossing British waters, turning off or manipulating their tracking systems, according to Reuters.
• The Royal Navy tracked and followed a Russian frigate every day last month as it sailed from the Atlantic to the North Sea, escorting six Russia-linked vessels, including at least three under economic sanction, passing east through the Dover strait, as reported by The Guardian.
• Russia has increased its maritime presence in response to UK threats to seize shadow fleet oil tankers, a claim from The Guardian, citing naval spotters and security experts.
• Other European countries, including France, Belgium, and Sweden, have seized shadow fleet vessels this year, according to multiple sources cited by Reuters and The Guardian.

Perspectives

The Guardian's reporting emphasizes the Royal Navy's vigilance and Russia's escalatory response, framing the situation as a maritime standoff. It quotes Defence Secretary John Healey and security expert Elizabeth Braw, who notes the disproportionate nature of Russia's escorting. Braw, a security expert with the Atlantic Council, told The Guardian, "This is completely disproportionate; navies normally only escort vessels when there is a clear military threat, such as from the Houthis in the Red Sea."

In contrast, the Jerusalem Post's article, based on a Reuters analysis, takes a critical view of the UK's inaction. It quotes the same expert, Elisabeth Braw (the spelling varies by source), as saying, "You have to quickly follow up with boardings or otherwise those vessels will conclude that it was an empty threat — and that is the regrettable situation we are in now." The article highlights that the threat has had no clear impact and that legal complications and the lack of a dedicated coastguard may hinder enforcement.

Temporal Context

The reports come as tensions between London and Moscow rise over Russia's war in Ukraine and the use of shadow fleet vessels to transport oil, grains, and arms. The UK's threat to board such vessels, announced by Starmer on March 25, was a response to Russia's continued maritime activities. Other European countries have taken more direct action, with France, Belgium, and Sweden seizing shadow fleet vessels this year. The UK's approach, however, has so far been limited to surveillance and threats, according to Reuters.