Russian Banking Sector Poised for Record Profits by 2027, VTB Executives Say
MOSCOW — Russian banks are on track to post near-record profits in 2026 and could break the existing record by 2027, according to forecasts from VTB and the rating agency Expert RA, as the central bank cuts interest rates and lending activity revives.
VTB First Deputy Chairman Dmitry Pianov told reporters on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that the banking sector's profit is expected at 3.6–3.9 trillion rubles ($50.6–$54.9 billion) in 2026, rising to as much as 4.1 trillion rubles ($55.8 billion) in 2027. “These profits will only grow in future periods. The 2024 record could be broken as early as in 2027–2028,” he said.
The sector's current record of 3.8 trillion rubles was set in 2024. Last year, banks failed to surpass that level, according to Pianov, who also noted that VTB's new three-year strategy targets a trillion-dollar net profit. The bank itself is projected to earn 600–650 billion rubles in 2026, while Sber could reach the two-trillion-ruble mark, he added.
Marina Chekurova, CEO of Expert RA, offered a similar outlook, forecasting net profit of 3.7–3.9 trillion rubles for 2026. “We expect that the steady trend toward lower key interest rates will contribute to the revival of lending activity, supporting growth in net interest income,” she said in an interview with TASS. Additional support may come from the positive revaluation of debt securities, including federal loan bonds (OFZs), she added.
The central bank has raised its own forecast for 2026 bank profits to 3.4–3.9 trillion rubles, up from a previous 3.3–3.8 trillion. At its April 24 meeting, the regulator lowered the key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 14.5%.
Risks and Labor Shortage
Despite the optimistic projections, Pianov warned of risks that could prevent the sector from setting a new record. He cited additional reserve provisioning for companies facing problems with their financial models amid a prolonged period of high key interest rates.
Beyond banking, Pianov addressed the broader economic challenge of a persistent labor shortage. “The Russian economy will face a labor shortage for many years to come,” he said in an interview ahead of SPIEF. He outlined two possible development models: an extensive one based on importing labor, which he called limited, and an intensive one focused on digitalization, platformization, artificial intelligence, robotics, and shifting resources from low-productivity to high-productivity industries.
Pianov emphasized that banks play a selective role in supporting economic growth through credit leverage. “We cannot expand our corporate loan portfolio indefinitely, so we are forced to choose who we lend to,” he explained, noting that banks effectively decide which industries and enterprises receive financial resources for capacity expansion.
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is taking place June 3–6, with the theme “Pragmatic Dialogue: The Path to a Stable Future.” The Roscongress Foundation organizes the event, and TASS serves as its general information partner.