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Russian stocks closed in positive territory on Friday, with the ruble-denominated MOEX Index adding 0.75% to 2,226.36 points and the dollar-denominated RTS Index gaining 1.25% to 882.61 points, as reported by TASS. The yuan exchange rate against the ruble slipped 1 kopeck to 11.73 rubles.
Coverage Comparison
TASS, the sole outlet whose reporting is available, covered the market close with two separate articles. The first, dated July 31, focused on the day's gains and analyst commentary on corporate results and dividend flows. The second, dated July 24, reported a different trading session where the MOEX Index rose 0.96% to 2,165.54 points and the RTS gained 1.44% to 874.26 points, with the yuan losing 9 kopecks to 11.48 rubles.
While both articles describe the market closing in the green, the figures differ significantly, reflecting different trading days. The July 24 piece attributed the positive performance partly to a surprise 25-basis-point cut in the Central Bank's key interest rate to 14%, which analysts said supported equity recovery. The July 31 article did not mention a rate move, instead emphasizing corporate results and upcoming Sberbank dividend payments.
Key Claims
- The MOEX Index rose 0.75% to 2,226.36 points on Friday (July 31), with the RTS gaining 1.25% to 882.61 points.
- In an earlier session (July 24), the MOEX Index added 0.96% to 2,165.54 points and the RTS rose 1.44% to 874.26 points.
- The yuan lost 1 kopeck against the ruble to 11.73 rubles on July 31, while on July 24 it declined 9 kopecks to 11.48 rubles.
- Andrey Smirnov, stock market analyst at BCS World of Investment, attributed the recent rebound to the MOEX Index bouncing 20% from multi-year lows and hitting resistance below 2,300 points, with profit-taking pulling it back to support above 2,200 points.
- BCS World of Investment forecast the MOEX Index to trade within 2,155-2,275 points during the first week of August, with a ruble forecast of 78-80 per dollar and 11.5-11.8 per yuan.
- Tsifra Broker said the market is supported by strong second-quarter corporate results and anticipated crediting of Sberbank dividends to investors' brokerage accounts, projecting a possible recovery toward 2,312 points.
- In the July 24 article, Smirnov described the Central Bank's 25-basis-point rate cut as an "unexpected gift," noting consensus expectations had favored a pause.
- BCS World of Investment forecast the MOEX Index between 2,100 and 2,200 points for the start of the following week (July 27), with ruble targets of 76 per dollar and 11.3 per yuan.
- Freedom Global also expected the MOEX Index at 2,100-2,200 points on Monday (July 27), with dollar, euro, and yuan forecasts of 76-78, 87-89, and 11.2-11.7 rubles, respectively.
- Tsifra Broker noted that the rate cut contributed to a decline in OFZ yields, supporting the recovery of equities, and expected a consolidation phase near current levels.
Perspectives
- BCS World of Investment (via analyst Andrey Smirnov): Sees the market rebounding from lows but facing resistance; expects a trading range of 2,155-2,275 points for early August. On July 24, they emphasized the rate cut as a positive surprise and forecast a range of 2,100-2,200 points for the following Monday.
- Tsifra Broker: Believes the market is underpinned by strong second-quarter corporate results and Sberbank dividend flows, with potential for further gains toward 2,312 points. Also highlighted the rate cut's role in lowering OFZ yields and aiding equity recovery.
- Freedom Global: Provided a forecast of 2,100-2,200 points for the MOEX Index on Monday (July 27), along with currency projections.