Russian Stock Indices Slip Across Recent Sessions, Analysts Cite Mixed Drivers

Lead

Russian equities have seen a series of declines in recent trading sessions, with the MOEX Index and the dollar-denominated RTS Index both closing lower on multiple occasions, according to reports from TASS. The benchmarks have moved within a narrow range, weighed by a lack of growth momentum and geopolitical factors, while analysts offered differing outlooks for the coming days.

Coverage Comparison

Reports from TASS, the sole source covering these market movements, showed consistent but varied declines across the MOEX Index. On Thursday, May 14, the index fell by 1.33% to 2,658.84 points, while the RTS dropped by 1.06% to 1,145.21 points. In contrast, a May 7 report noted a smaller decline of 0.65% to 2,615.33 points for the MOEX, with the RTS edging up 0.15% to 1,104.09 points. Other sessions saw the MOEX fall by 0.82% (to 2,579.9 points) and 0.69% (to 2,580.25 points), with the RTS dropping 2.1% and 0.86% respectively. The reports attributed these movements to a mix of sluggish trading, geopolitical tensions, and sector-specific developments.

Key Claims

The MOEX Index, Russia's main benchmark, closed lower in each of the five sessions covered, with percentage declines ranging from 0.65% to 1.33%. The RTS Index only rose in one session, on May 7, when it gained 0.15%, while other sessions saw declines of up to 2.1%. Analysts quoted by TASS pointed to several drivers: Andrey Smirnov of BCS World of Investments cited “sluggish, mixed trading” and the index's struggle to hold above key levels, while on May 14 he noted that after three positive sessions, the index “corrected downwards.” Natalia Milchakova of Freedom Finance Global highlighted individual stock moves, such as AFK Sistema shares rising 3.8% without corporate news, possibly due to expectations of strong financial results, and PJSC Rosseti Centre and Volga Region falling 7.2%, which she suggested could be due to overvaluation.

In specific sessions, other notable movers included Credit Bank of Moscow shares (+3.7%), VK IPJSC shares (-2.3%), Lenta retailer (+2%), FESCO (-4.9%), TGK-1 (+3.4%), TMK (-5.8%), NCSP (+3.8%), and UGC (-10.1%). Milchakova attributed some moves to corporate events, such as dividend announcements or upcoming shareholder meetings.

Analysts from both BCS and Freedom Finance provided forecasts for the MOEX Index, though ranges varied. For example, on May 7, BCS predicted a range of 2,575-2,655 points for Friday, while Freedom Finance expected 2,600-2,700. Later forecasts included BCS's range of 2,600-2,700 for Thursday, May 21, and Freedom Finance's 2,650-2,750 for Friday, May 15. These predictions were presented as expert expectations, with some caveats about market direction.

Perspectives

Analysts expressed differing, sometimes cautious, views on the market's trajectory. Andrey Smirnov of BCS World of Investments described trading as “sluggish” and noted decreasing volatility and turnover, while also pointing to geopolitical factors as a “main drag” in a May 26 report. Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya of the same firm was more pessimistic, stating that the market “remains weak” and that there is “no will to grow,” despite supportive factors like energy prices.

Natalia Milchakova of Freedom Finance Global focused on individual stock movements, attributing gains and losses to corporate news cycles or speculation ahead of earnings. In some cases, she acknowledged a lack of specific reasons for moves, such as the drop in Rosseti Centre shares. Her forecasts for the MOEX Index were generally aligned with BCS, though with slight variations in ranges.

Both firms incorporated currency forecasts into their outlooks, with expectations for the ruble-dollar and ruble-yuan rates, reflecting broader external conditions. The reports did not include commentary from non-analyst sources or official statements, and all information was sourced from TASS, which is a state-owned Russian news agency.