Russia's Advance Slows, Casualties Rise as Ukraine Regains Territory
Recent assessments paint a mixed picture of the war in Ukraine, with Russian forces making far smaller territorial gains than the previous year, while suffering significantly higher casualties, according to multiple reports. At the same time, Ukraine has retaken a modest but symbolically important area, and Russia's economic pressures are becoming increasingly apparent.
Territorial Changes
The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) has confirmed that Ukraine recaptured approximately 400 square kilometers in and around the Dnipropetrovsk region during the most recent quarter, the largest such gain since late 2022, according to a report to Congress released on May 18. This marks a notable reversal of the trend seen in 2025, when Russian forces made steady advances.
However, Russia still holds a net territorial advantage for 2026 as a whole. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, calculates that between January 1 and May 26, 2026, Russia advanced by a net 104 square kilometers (40 square miles). That is a dramatic slowdown compared with the same period in 2025, when Russian forces seized approximately 1,619 square kilometers (625 square miles). The ISW also reported that Russian forces had infiltrated and contested an additional 628 square kilometers (242.5 square miles) without achieving full control.
The discrepancy between the DIA's figure of Ukrainian recaptures and the ISW's net Russian gains may reflect different reporting periods or methodologies, but both point to a significant attenuation of Russia's offensive momentum.
Casualty Figures
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russian casualties have increased to 145,000 so far this year, with 86,000 killed and 59,000 troops seriously wounded. Ukraine's Defence Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, contextualized these numbers, saying they equate to 179 Russian losses per square kilometer of advance, compared to 67 per square kilometer in the previous year. Fedorov argued that this rate exceeds what Russia can sustain through recruitment.
Neither figure could be independently verified. Al Jazeera, which reported these claims, noted that it could not confirm casualty numbers from either side. Independent military analysts have long cautioned that casualty figures in conflict zones are difficult to verify and may be subject to propaganda on both sides.
Economic Strain
Russia's economic difficulties are also becoming more visible. According to data from Russia's Central Bank, Moscow has sold 27.9 tonnes of its gold reserves this year, worth more than $4 billion. This drawdown brings gold reserves to their lowest level since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. The sales come after Russia reportedly exceeded its entire budget deficit allowance for 2026 by April, according to the same reports.
These indicators suggest that the financial costs of the war are mounting, even as Russia attempts to sustain its military campaign. Economic analysts point out that gold sales can be a short-term measure to plug budget gaps but do not address underlying structural issues.
Aerial Campaign
The DIA's report attributed Ukraine's territorial gains in part to its success against Russian aerial operations. Ukrainian air defenses have reportedly intercepted a significant portion of Russian drones and missiles. In a recent attack on Kyiv and surrounding areas on May 24, Russia launched approximately 600 long-range drones and 90 missiles, according to reports. Ukraine's military said it shot down 91 percent of the drones and 81 percent of the cruise missiles. At least 87 people were injured and two were killed in that attack, according to local officials.
These intercept rates, if accurate, underscore the effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense systems, which have been bolstered by Western supplies. The high volume of drones and missiles also suggests Russia is willing to expend significant resources in its aerial campaign, despite the limited success in penetrating Ukrainian defenses.
Outlook
The combination of slowing territorial gains, rising casualty rates, and economic strain suggests that Russia's military position is more precarious than in previous years. However, analysts caution that Russia still occupies a substantial portion of Ukrainian territory and retains the capacity to sustain a war of attrition. Ukraine's recapture of territory, while symbolically significant, remains limited, and the overall front line has moved little in recent months.
The situation remains fluid, and both sides continue to adapt their tactics. Western intelligence assessments, such as those from the DIA, have in the past been broadly accurate in their broad strokes, but the fog of war means that precise figures should be treated with caution.