Zelenskyy Warns Airlines of Unsafe Russian Airspace as Ukraine Expands Drone Campaign

Zelenskyy's Warning

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a stark warning to the aviation industry, stating that Russian airspace is becoming "completely unsafe" due to the scale of Ukraine's drone operations. In his nightly address on Tuesday, Zelenskyy addressed "every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who still uses Russia's key airports," urging them to take the elevated risk seriously.

Zelenskyy said that "Russian airspace is becoming completely unsafe," and that "Russian airspace will effectively be closing -- the war started by Russia is closing its skies." He stressed that Ukraine does not intend to threaten civilian aviation, saying, "Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation as such -- not a single civilian aircraft." Instead, he warned, "There will simply be drones in Russia's skies on a scale that has to be taken into account." He also remarked, "Drone-infested skies are no place for civilian aviation," as reported by multiple outlets.

According to the official website of the Ukrainian President, Zelenskyy said Russia had changed the tactics of its assaults on Ukraine and intensified missile and drone strikes since August, targeting cities, infrastructure, and energy facilities. He said Ukraine was exercising its right to self-defence by striking Russian military targets and parts of the Russian economy supporting the war effort. He also noted that Ukraine's Foreign Ministry would provide international organisations with information about the "dangers" in Russian airspace.

Zelenskyy also referenced temporary pauses in Ukrainian strikes that Kyiv had agreed to following requests from the United States and another "global power." "When the Americans asked us to pause strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg on August 25, 26, and 27, we observed that pause," he said, according to Republic World.

Putin's Response

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded sharply to Zelenskyy's warning, calling it a "declaration of state terrorism." Speaking to reporters at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kyrgyzstan, Putin dismissed the idea of resuming negotiations, saying, "You don't negotiate with terrorists," as reported by CNBC. The Guardian quoted Putin as saying, "Negotiations are not conducted with terrorists."

Putin also said that Russia's military had been ordered to carry out mass strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities this winter, aiming to knock out heating and electricity. "The Russian armed forces have been ordered to prepare and carry out mass strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities. They are striking us, and they will get a response," he said, according to The Guardian.

In a separate development, Putin claimed that Russian forces had captured the Ukrainian town of Sviatohirsk in the Donetsk region. This claim was not supported by battlefield maps produced by DeepState, a Ukrainian monitoring group, according to The Guardian. Pro-war blogger Alexei Larkin wrote, "This is simply a lie. Sviatohirsk has not been liberated."

Putin dismissed the prospect of a new mobilisation as unnecessary and said he was comfortable working with US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, although he acknowledged that negotiations on Ukraine were "currently frozen, to a certain extent," as reported by multiple outlets. The CIA director, John Ratcliffe, made a rare visit to Moscow last week and reportedly pressed the Kremlin to end the war, according to The Guardian.

The Drone Campaign and Its Reach

Ukraine's drone campaign has escalated significantly, with strikes reaching deep into Russian territory. According to military sources cited by The Guardian, Ukraine is already capable of launching several hundred drones a day and is pursuing a target of 1,000 drones. Aviation risk firm Osprey Flight Solutions said Ukraine has consistently launched more than 500 drones near daily, with multiple days exceeding 1,000 drones.

This year, Ukraine has begun bombing oil refineries and warehouses near Moscow and St Petersburg, as well as hitting military and industrial sites at ranges in excess of 125 miles (200km) from its border, according to The Guardian. Osprey Flight Solutions assessed that most Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are likely to remain within 300km (186 miles) of the border, but that daily attacks deeper inside Russia are likely to continue throughout the rest of 2026. The firm also warned that "miscalculation and/or misidentification is likely in areas related to the Ukraine conflict."

Ukraine's commercial airspace has been closed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, as Russia has been able to strike targets throughout the country, making airports unsafe for civilians, as reported by The Guardian.

Aviation Safety Concerns

Concerns about civilian aviation safety in the region have a long history. In 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board. A European human rights court found Russia responsible for the downing, as reported by Times Now. In December 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after diverting from southern Russia, killing 38 people. Putin acknowledged that two Russian missiles had detonated beside the aircraft, according to Al Jazeera.

The growing presence of drones and air-defence systems over and around Russia has raised concerns among aviation analysts. Mark Brace, head of analysis at Osprey Flight Solutions, noted that there has been an average of 30 Russian airport closures per day since the war started. Brace said that "alternative routings through the Caucasus and Central Asia and the Middle East/Red Sea/Saudi Arabia/Gulf region are already congested," and that "there has been no significant return to using Iraq/Iran airspace as corridors." He added that renewed fighting between the US and Iran would "put further pressure on the alternative corridors."

Alex Macheras, an aviation analyst, said that "Russian airspace remains the single biggest structural distortion in global aviation." He noted that before February 2022, more than 360,000 flights a year passed over Siberia. The cost of avoiding Russian airspace, he said, is "factored into ticket prices, operational overheads, crew rosters, and aircraft utilisation across the entire European long-haul network." Macheras also said that Turkish Airlines has built "real strategic value from its neutral access to Russian airspace," and that "a broader closure would likely reinforce the Gulf hub model, rather than damage it."

Azerbaijan's air traffic chief noted that before Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, his country handled an average of 278 flights a day, rising to 695 per day by the end of 2025. After the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, flights over Azerbaijan increased to a daily average of 810 during March, according to Al Jazeera. Macheras noted that "very little spare capacity exists" in already congested corridors, and that "the Caucasus corridor is barely 100 miles [161km] wide at its narrowest point."

Most Western commercial airlines do not fly into Russian airspace due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, some Chinese and Gulf state carriers, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, continue to use Russian airspace, as reported by CNBC and the Times Now. On Monday, China's top three airlines posted losses for the first half of 2026, a development that Al Jazeera linked to the ongoing disruptions in global aviation.

The situation continues to evolve, with both sides trading threats and accusations. As the war enters another winter, the safety of commercial aviation over Russia remains a pressing concern for airlines, insurers, and passengers alike.