Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say

Lead

Poland and the Baltic states are on alert following warnings from US intelligence and regional security services that Russia may be preparing a military provocation designed to test NATO's resolve. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the coming months could be "critical" and that Warsaw is preparing for various scenarios, while Latvian intelligence has cited indications of potential hybrid attacks against NATO's eastern members.

The warnings come amid heightened tensions as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues and Western allies debate further support for Kyiv. NATO leaders are set to gather for their annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, this month, where defense spending and continued weapons funding for Ukraine are expected to be key topics.

Coverage Comparison

Reports of the potential provocation have been carried by multiple outlets, with some variations in emphasis. The BBC, citing Polish media, reported that US intelligence had reportedly warned Poland about a potential Russian attack, and quoted Prime Minister Tusk as saying the country is preparing for "various" scenarios. Fox News highlighted Latvian intelligence's warning of possible "military provocations" and Russia's use of hybrid warfare tactics, including "lawfare" against the West. The Guardian also cited Latvian intelligence and added that Western sources fear danger because the Kremlin is under pressure from Ukraine's long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Jerusalem Post, citing The Telegraph, detailed possible NATO responses, including attacks on Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula, and the Black Sea, as reported by German Luftwaffe head Holger Neumann.

While the reports broadly agree on the nature of the threat, there are differences in emphasis: Fox News focused on hybrid attacks and miscalculation risks, while The Guardian suggested Russia is not capable of opening a second front. The Jerusalem Post included more confrontational language about potential NATO retaliation.

Key Claims

US intelligence warnings to Poland: According to Polish outlet Onet, sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki said the US had issued several warnings to Warsaw about a plot to attack the country. The White House and US State Department did not respond to the BBC's requests for comment. A Polish ambassador to a NATO country and a source in Poland's defense ministry confirmed that a provocation in either Poland or a Baltic state is being considered a risk, according to the report.

Potential attack scenarios: Reports suggest the attack could be launched within months and might involve missile or drone attacks on infrastructure, or a ground invasion from Kaliningrad or Belarus. The reported purpose would be to pressure Poland's NATO allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. Latvian intelligence said Russia was considering "hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems."

Russia's capability and intentions: Latvian intelligence said Russia was not capable of opening a second front, but could resort to hybrid attacks. A senior political source from a second NATO member said "we are picking up intelligence" that Vladimir Putin was "planning something against the Baltic states," possibly to test US support for small allies. Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the Chatham House thinktank, said Moscow would look for ways to disrupt the current trend through "horizontal escalation" or "doing something elsewhere."

NATO's Article 5 and summit: NATO's Article 5 states that an armed attack against one member will be considered an attack against all. The upcoming summit in Turkey is expected to show Europeans are heeding US President Donald Trump's calls to increase defense spending, and leaders are expected to pledge continued funding for weapons for Ukraine.

Impact of sanctions and lawfare: Fox News reported that Western sanctions are having a real impact inside Russia. The same outlet noted Russia is intensifying "lawfare" against the West — using courts, legal claims, and international institutions to pressure Western governments, weaken support for Ukraine, and create possible justification for more aggressive actions.

Possible NATO response: The Jerusalem Post, citing The Telegraph, reported that NATO could respond to a potential provocation with attacks on Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula, and the Black Sea. This claim was attributed to German Luftwaffe head Holger Neumann.

Perspectives

Polish Government: Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the country is preparing for "various" situations and that the coming months may be "critical," while acknowledging threats "thanks to information from our allies." He told the Financial Times in April that Russia could attack a NATO member state in "months," and Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski told CBS News he would not rule out a Russian "false flag" operation in the next two years.

Latvian Intelligence: In a statement to Fox News Digital and The Guardian, Latvian intelligence said it sees indications of Russian preparations for military provocations, but not a conventional war. The biggest concern, according to Latvian intelligence, is miscalculation: "Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions."

Western Sources and Experts: A senior political source from a second NATO member said Putin might be willing to test US support for the Baltic states in a desperate effort "to throw the dice" as Russia struggles with its invasion of Ukraine. Keir Giles of Chatham House said Moscow would not passively lose and could seek horizontal escalation. Western sources also fear danger because the Kremlin is under pressure from Ukraine's long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg.