Lead

Russia has no intention of leaving the OPEC+ agreement, as the alliance effectively mitigates oil market risks during times of crisis, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. His remarks, reported by TASS, were made at the Caucasus Investment Forum and come as the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from both OPEC and OPEC+ took effect on May 1, 2026.

Coverage Comparison

Coverage from TASS, which serves as a primary source for the Russian government's positions, features Novak's assertions prominently. The state news agency's reports relay his promises that OPEC+ countries will continue to work together despite the UAE's departure.

Novak also framed the UAE's departure as a "sovereign decision." He emphasised the longevity of the country's participation in the broader oil pact, which he said has shown positive results over the last decade.

Key Claims

  • Russia has no plans to leave OPEC+: Novak stated, "As the largest oil-producing country, we have no plans to leave this cooperation because we believe it effectively mitigates oil market risks during a crisis, allows us to maintain our investment strategy, industry development prospects, and ongoing cooperation between countries."
  • OPEC+ will continue despite UAE withdrawal: Novak expressed confidence that the group's members will continue to work together, saying, "We will continue to work together. I think each country will speak for itself."
  • Oil market in 'profound crisis' due to supply shortage: Novak claimed that the oil industry faces a "profound crisis" caused by a supply shortage, stating, "A huge amount of oil is not entering the market today. Demand significantly exceeds supply. We see an imbalance due to serious logistical difficulties and the situation in the Middle East."
  • Price war ruled out: He dismissed the possibility of a price war following the UAE's exit, asking, "How can there be a price war when there is a shortage on the market?"
  • Russia to pursue flexible coordination: Igbal Guliyev, Dean of the Faculty of Financial Economics at MGIMO University, suggested that Moscow will rely less on "rigid collective restrictions and more on flexible coordination" with partners within OPEC+.

Perspectives

Russian Government: The deputy prime minister projects confidence in the resilience of the OPEC+ format, even as the UAE departs. Moscow frames the move as a choice made by a sovereign state and plays down its potentially disruptive impact.

Russian Analyst: An economist cited by TASS believes the UAE's exit strengthens OPEC+'s role as a stabilising force. He anticipates Russia will leverage bilateral deals and political coordination with established partners in this evolving landscape.