With two months until the midterm elections, Republicans are facing warnings of "historic losses" as new polling aggregates show the party trailing in eight battleground Senate races. The data, highlighted by strategists and operatives, paints a challenging picture for a party already navigating historical trends that typically disadvantage the White House party in midterms.
According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, Republicans are down by 8 points in North Carolina, 7.5 points in Georgia, 2.6 points in Ohio, 2.3 points in Maine, 2 points in Alaska and New Hampshire, and 1.9 points in Texas, as reported by The Independent and The Daily Beast. Democrats currently hold three of the battleground seats in play, while Republicans hold the other six. All races in the aggregate except Georgia and North Carolina fall within typical margin of error.
"It points out the obvious that Republicans are in pretty bad shape going into the midterms and that they're looking at historic losses," GOP strategist Terry Holt told The New York Post, as cited in both outlets. "The question is whether some of these races can be saved with some miraculous turnout that apparently is going to be very expensive or whether or not the mood in this country can be changed fundamentally," Holt added.
A Republican strategist involved in Senate races echoed the concern: "National Republicans have been sounding the alarm that midterms are hard since last year, and we've been firm that not a single race should be taken for granted," the strategist told the Post.
Not everyone agrees with the bleak assessment. Veteran GOP pollster Jim McLaughlin pushed back, telling the outlet that "Republicans are in much better shape than what a lot of these media polls are showing," citing private polling. "Look, we still got a long way to go between now and Election Day," he added.
The warnings come as President Donald Trump has resumed strikes against Iran, and the cost of living remains the most pressing issue for voters, according to The Independent. Affordability is dominating voters' minds, an issue that could worsen in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio if Trump's trade war with Canada drags on, as noted by The Daily Beast.
Trump's absence from the ballot is complicating Republican efforts to turn out the MAGA base, while Democrats are seen as highly motivated. In South Carolina, Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC spent more than $800,000 in ad spending and organizing costs to secure Darline Graham Nordone's Senate nomination, according to a single source cited in The Daily Beast.
Politico columnist Jonathan Martin reports that Republicans are haunted by comparisons to 2006, a year when Democrats swept both chambers. Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota told Martin, "He's in serious trouble in farm country. He being Trump—and Trump is us. I'm not very optimistic." In Ohio and Iowa, Trump's trade wars, the war with Iran, and foreign beef imports have driven up costs, and Martin reports discontent is spreading beyond the heartland.
A strategist involved in key Senate races told Politico, "You've got September and October to really move the needle here, and it just doesn't seem like there's any sense of urgency, or like we understand that we're down big in some of these states."
Despite the grim data, Republicans hold a bright spot: Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa leads Democrat Josh Turek by 1.4 percentage points, though that race is more competitive than in recent cycles.