Reid Research poll: Opportunity in kingmaker position, Luxon and Hipkins approval slumps

A New Political Contender

New Zealand's political landscape is stirring with the rise of the Opportunity Party, a self-described centrist party that has never held a parliamentary seat, now emerging as a potential kingmaker in the upcoming election. According to the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, the party, led by Qiulae Wong, has tipped over the 5% threshold for the first time, a development that could reshape the balance of power.

Neither the governing coalition nor the opposition would have the numbers to form a government without the Opportunity Party's support, according to the same poll. This positions the party as a decisive player in the race, a scenario that seemed unlikely just months ago.

The party's platform includes a land tax and a $370-a-week universal basic income, policies that have caught the attention of voters disillusioned with the two major parties. Wong, a 38-year-old sustainability consultant and mother-of-two from Auckland, returned to New Zealand in 2022 after nearly a decade in London. She describes the party as looking to 'market-driven solutions' while remaining committed to a low-emission future and evidence-based policy.

The Guardian reports that the Opportunity Party is polling at roughly 5-8% in recent polls, with some surveys suggesting it could win more than the 5% of the vote needed to enter parliament under New Zealand's MMP system. The party was started by economist and philanthropist Gareth Morgan three elections ago.

A Shifting Political Landscape

The emergence of the Opportunity Party comes at a time when support for the traditional major parties is waning. National's polling is at about 29%, and combined support for National and Labour is at its lowest in 30 years, according to The Guardian. This 'mainstream malaise' has led voters to shop around, as Massey University political scientist Richard Shaw noted, with voters less attached to parties than they used to be.

The latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls, run after the RNZ Reid Research poll, shows the probability of the National, Act, and New Zealand First coalition winning a second term has slid to 48.2%. This figure, reported by the New Zealand Herald, underscores the challenges facing the incumbent government.

The Opportunity Party's rise has also been marked by mixed reactions. Former Labour leader Helen Clark has called the party's land tax 'fantasy posing as policy', a sentiment echoed by some voters. But others, like Mattie Wall, a 76-year-old former diplomat and project manager from the South Island, see the party as a pragmatic alternative. Wall, who plans to vote for Opportunity this year, expressed deep frustration with the major parties, citing global issues like Trump 2.0 and AI's sudden surge as reasons for her disillusionment.

The Land Tax and Its Prospects

Central to the Opportunity Party's platform is a land tax proposal that would introduce a 1.75% tax on urban land and 0.5% on rural land. The policy is modelled to raise NZ$24 billion for a citizen's income and is designed to drive house prices down by 10-15%. Wong has said that 70% of New Zealanders would be better off under the plan.

The proposal has drawn sharp criticism, not just from Clark but also from voters like Christine Hands, a 77-year-old who plans to vote National, describing the policies as 'mad as a meat axe'. The Post newspaper reported that the Opportunity Party could appeal to voters across the political spectrum, with 20% of respondents having voted National at the last election, 17% Labour, 12% the Greens, and 8% NZ First.

The Coalition's Struggles

The governing coalition, comprising National, Act, and New Zealand First, is facing an uphill battle. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, a stance that could limit his options if the party holds the balance of power. In August, Luxon indicated on Newstalk ZB that he was open to holding a referendum on MMP, saying he wanted as many National ministers in cabinet as possible for a stable government, and not some 'yahoo or numpty'.

Act Party leader David Seymour's party has received $1.8 million in donations this year, just behind National, and is polling at 9%. However, the coalition's overall re-election prospects appear dimming, according to the Poll of Polls.

Voter Sentiment

Voter sentiment is clearly shifting. Gemma, a 41-year-old former Green voter from Wellington, will vote for the Opportunity Party for the first time, reflecting a broader trend of voters abandoning traditional allegiances. The Guardian's reporting highlights a sense of despair among voters, with phrases like 'I'm so hacked off' capturing the mood.

At the 2023 election, National got 38% of the vote, requiring the support of New Zealand First and Act to form a coalition. Under the MMP system, in place since 1996, a party must secure 51% of the vote for a clear win, but more often, coalitions are formed. The possibility of the Opportunity Party becoming the kingmaker adds a new layer of complexity to the electoral arithmetic.

Looking Ahead

As the election approaches, the political landscape remains fluid. The Opportunity Party's rise could either lead to a new coalition or force the major parties to reconsider their positions. Luxon's refusal to work with the party may prove to be a significant constraint, while Labour, led by Chris Hipkins, whose approval rating has also slumped, faces its own challenges.

The situation is one of uncertainty and change, with voters like Wall expressing a desire for a different kind of politics. Whether the Opportunity Party can translate its polling numbers into seats remains to be seen, but its emergence has already disrupted the status quo.