Race for French presidency sees ex-PM Philippe as early favourite to beat populists

Lead

With less than a year until France chooses its next president, opinion polls point to former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe as the centrist candidate best positioned to beat a far-right opponent in the decisive second round of voting next May. According to the BBC's Hugh Schofield, Philippe — President Emmanuel Macron's first prime minister — is seen as the only figure capable of defeating either Marine Le Pen or her deputy Jordan Bardella in a head-to-head contest.

Coverage comparison

Two major international outlets have covered the developing race, though with distinctly different emphases. The BBC presented Philippe's emergence as the natural choice of the centre-right, while The Guardian framed the election as a high-stakes moment for the European Union, warning that a nationalist president in Paris could "paralyse the bloc's decision-making."

Both outlets noted the growing list of declared and potential candidates — The Guardian puts the number at 35 — and expressed concern about the fragmentation of the moderate vote. The Guardian quoted France's Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who reportedly warned that the "tangle of ambitions" might make voters "find the whole thing grotesque."

Key claims

Drawing on multiple reports, the following points emerge:

• Philippe's perceived electability: Polls cited by the BBC indicate Philippe is the only centrist figure who could outperform a hard-right candidate in the second round. He is also seen as best placed to keep hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon out of the run-off, a scenario described as "a nightmare for business and France's European partners."
• The crowded field: The Guardian reports 35 candidates jostling for position, including Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Attal, another former prime minister, declared his candidacy on Friday. The Guardian notes that Philippe is currently trailing Attal in the polls.
• Policy positions: Philippe has announced his three campaign directors and adopted a distinctly Gaullist slogan, "France Libre" (Free France). He supports raising the retirement age beyond its current 64 and has proposed a law to enshrine balanced budgets, according to the BBC.
• Voter sentiment: Polls suggested by The Guardian indicate 74% of French voters want either "radical transformation" or "deep changes" in the country, underscoring widespread discontent with the status quo.
• Le Pen's legal situation: The National Rally party will learn on 7 July whether Marine Le Pen's legal troubles definitively prevent her from running, a detail noted by The Guardian.

Perspectives

The BBC frames Philippe's candidacy as a potential saving grace for the French centre-right, with supporters hoping rivals from the same political space will step aside to avoid splitting the vote. In this view, Philippe's early lead and apparent broad appeal make him the most viable bulwark against extremes on both sides.

The Guardian, meanwhile, cautions that the failure of mainstream parties to unite risks handing the presidency to the far right. Its analysis emphasizes the potentially severe consequences for European integration, including challenges to EU law supremacy, the single market, and the Schengen area of free movement.

Both outlets agree on the core dynamic: with so many candidates from the moderate left, centre, and centre-right, the first round of the presidential election in April could divide the non-extreme vote and allow a far-right candidate to reach the run-off with a strong chance of victory.

While the reporting reflects a degree of consensus on Philippe's current standing, the broader trajectory of the race remains uncertain. As the election approaches, the ability of the various centrist candidates to consolidate support — and the resolution of Le Pen's legal situation — will likely shape the outcome.