Quebec Separatist Leader Delays Independence Referendum Until After Trump's Presidency; Alberta's Vote Proceeds

The leader of Quebec's secessionist party has promised not to hold a referendum on independence until United States President Donald Trump has left office, while Alberta's premier has confirmed that her province's separation vote will proceed as planned.

Parti Quebecois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said on Tuesday that debate over Quebec independence could only proceed calmly once Trump is no longer president. "It must not be hijacked by the upheavals of American politics, nor by the outbursts of an unpredictable president, nor by fear campaigns," St-Pierre Plamondon said. "This unpredictability of the American administration will harm our process as well as the quality of the debate on our future as a nation."

Quebec must hold its next provincial election by October 5, and the Parti Quebecois is hoping to make gains at the ballot box. Polls currently suggest it is leading the province's Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Quebec, which has the greatest number of seats in Quebec's National Assembly.

St-Pierre Plamondon affirmed that he intended to seek an independence referendum should his party win this year. But such a vote, he said, would wait until later in the four-year term, after Trump's second term concludes in January 2029.

Since returning to the presidency in 2025, Trump's hostility towards Canada has redefined cross-border relations. Trump has repeatedly voiced controversial opinions about turning the country into a 51st US state, and has used tariffs on Canadian goods as leverage to advance policy demands. Negotiations on Tuesday are ongoing as Canadian officials seek to head off Trump's latest tariff threat, which would impose 50 percent import taxes starting at midnight on Wednesday.

Trump's actions have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism. There has been speculation that the US may encourage secessionist efforts in Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith holds significant sway.

Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University, said "Triggering [a referendum on independence] while Trump remains in the White House would have been particularly risky." Beland added that support for independence in Quebec remains around 30 percent.

Alberta's Separation Vote Proceeds

In contrast to Quebec's approach, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Saturday there will be no pause in her province's separation debate, regardless of the trade war with the United States. Responding to a caller on her radio program Your Province Your Premier, who asked if the revival of the trade war might mean it's time to change the separation vote timeline, Smith insisted the vote will go ahead.

"We have a citizen initiative process," she said. "700,000 citizens signed one of two petitions saying they wanted to have this question now, and that's what the vote is going to be on October the 19th."

The question arose after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, at a press conference following the collapse of trade talks late Friday night with the U.S., said, "You're at war when you're under attack. We've been attacked."

Smith's comments came after a social media statement made on Aug. 18 by St-Pierre Plamondon, who pledged that his party wouldn't hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty "while Donald Trump is president." St-Pierre Plamondon explained his decision: "I have chosen to completely defuse the argument that this would be the worst possible time to reflect on our future because of Trump, by ruling out the possibility of holding a referendum before the end of his second term. That means we will be able to run a campaign based on our proposals to help Quebecers and revitalize our future, rather than on repetitive and fruitless fear-mongering."

Smith said that's not happening in Alberta. "If you want to vote to remain (in Canada), vote option one. That's the one I'm voting for, and if you want to vote to start the process to leave, that's the other option on the ballot," she said. "We need to make sure that we are clear about what Albertans want us to do. That's part of the reason why we're having the vote--and I'm going to do my darndest to make sure that we stay in Canada."

The two petitions include one launched by former Alberta Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, whose organization Forever Canadian gathered 404,000 signatures. Lukaszuk said in June that including his organization's signatures to justify the referendum was misleading, as "Our question is not on the referendum."

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi called for unity, saying "Team Canada must stand together now more than ever."

The differing approaches reflect provincial leaders' assessments of the political landscape: Smith rejects delaying due to the trade war, while St-Pierre Plamondon chooses to delay due to Trump's presidency.