Press review: EU seeks to derail Ukraine talks as oil prices fall on Mid-East peace hopes

Lead

TASS, reviewing Tuesday's and Friday's Russian newspaper headlines, reports that the United States and Iran have agreed to end all hostilities in the Middle East and restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement, signed remotely by the presidents of the two countries, also includes provisions for lifting the US naval blockade and ending military operations on all fronts. Iran’s nuclear program is expected to be discussed in the next stage of dialogue.

Coverage Comparison

TASS’s coverage across three separate articles highlights the memorandum as a central topic, with experts quoted from Russian newspapers Vedomosti and Izvestia. The tone is cautious, with experts describing the agreement as a fragile framework that could be derailed by any act of provocation. TASS also frames the story within broader geopolitical developments, including NATO military exercises near Russia's border and Russia's foreign policy successes at the Russia-ASEAN summit.

Key Claims

The US-Iran Memorandum

According to TASS, the US and Iran have agreed to end all hostilities and restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying the agreement also includes an end to Israel’s military operations in Lebanon. Iran expert Ismail Gibadullin said Israel’s position is crucial to the deal, and he noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no plans to step down and will seek to continue escalating regional tensions at least until parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall, undermining any peace initiatives.

Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti that the memorandum could remain in effect longer than the projected 60 days, but it is a fragile framework, and any act of provocation may derail the agreement. He added that the very fact that the accord has been reached is important as an interim stage on the way toward ending the war in the Middle East, demonstrating the parties’ willingness to engage in dialogue.

Political scientist Dastan Tokoldoshev told Izvestia that the current contents of the memorandum are largely in line with Tehran’s interests rather than those of Washington, as the document includes provisions on easing sanctions and pressure on Iran with regard to its nuclear project, as well as freezing military operations.

Alexey Yurk, a researcher with the Center for Middle East Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said the viability of the memorandum is hard to assess at this point. He noted that neither party is interested in a full-scale resumption of hostilities because they are unable to achieve their goals through military force, but the document is not legally binding and is skewed in favor of Iran’s demands. Yurk added that the US is likely to seek to use any window of opportunity to change the situation to its advantage, and that Washington won’t need any special excuse to accuse Iran of failing to comply with the agreement or delaying talks.

Murad Sadygzade, head of the Center for Middle East Research, told Izvestia that any future agreement will certainly be fragile.

Escalation Risks and US Role

TASS reports that Israel and Iran are on the brink of another full-scale clash, following days of limited but painful exchange of strikes. Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev pointed out that the latest round of tensions may cause political damage to the United States as it seeks the role of chief mediator. He said the escalation comes at a time when the US is actively trying to settle its own disputes with Tehran, and that the rise in violence is troubling for Washington, which has faced military, financial, and domestic political problems due to its involvement in the Iran gamble.

The situation remains uncertain, and despite US President Donald Trump’s promises to keep developments in the Middle East under control, tensions continue to escalate. TASS notes that the parties to the conflict find it increasingly difficult to confine themselves to symbolic strikes, raising the risk of intensified hostilities. Under such circumstances, the US is faced with a choice: bring other influential mediators into the process or keep working alone and risk being left with no deal at all.

Broader Context

TASS also reports that NATO has kicked off a large-scale military exercise near Russia's border, that Armenia is likely to continue the same policy after parliamentary elections, and that Russia sees no EU willingness to engage in dialogue. Moscow has secured a foreign policy victory at the Russia-ASEAN summit, according to TASS.

Oil prices have declined amid expectations of an end to the Middle East conflict. TASS also notes that the European Union has increased its Russian gas purchases, and that Russia's grain harvest is likely to remain at last year's level in the 2026-2027 season. Additionally, TASS reports that the US national debt and rising debt-servicing costs could make borrowing more expensive across the world.

Perspectives

Russian Government and Media

The Russian press, as reviewed by TASS, presents a cautious but engaged view of the US-Iran memorandum. Experts quoted are largely from Russian academic institutions, and their assessments emphasize the fragility of the agreement and its alignment with Iranian interests. The coverage also highlights Russia's own diplomatic and economic standing, including its foreign policy victory at the Russia-ASEAN summit and its perception of the EU's unwillingness to engage in dialogue.

International Actors (as described in Russian press)

The Russian press describes the United States as seeking to maintain its leading role in the Middle East settlement process, but facing challenges due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel is portrayed as potentially undermining peace initiatives due to domestic political considerations. The EU is seen as trying to derail Ukraine peace talks, according to the Russian press, though no specific EU actions are detailed in the provided material.