Authorities warn of heightened bushfire danger across Australia
Fire authorities across Australia are preparing for a spring fire season that could bring sharply different risks depending on the region, with some areas facing an early bushfire threat while others contend with delayed wet seasons and severe weather. The national snapshot of bushfire risk, by the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC), predicts greater fire risk in parts of Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania and South Australia, as well as the Northern Territory, New South Wales and Queensland.
Chief executive Rob Webb said the outlook was driven by dry conditions in the country’s east and increased fuel loads through parts of central and northern Australia. “The variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities to understand their local conditions and prepare early,” he said.
El Niño strengthening but not the only driver
The Bureau of Meteorology's Michael Egan said a strengthening El Niño is influencing the outlook, but it is not the only climate driver at play. “I will just remind everyone that the bureau's long-range forecast does incorporate all of the influences from our surrounding oceans and the atmosphere as well as other long-term climate trends. I mention that because I'm sure most people are aware an El Niño event is underway, it is strengthening, and it is going to be a very strong one,” Egan said.
Regional breakdown: from the NT to Tasmania
Northern Territory
Large parts of the Northern Territory are facing heightened fire danger throughout spring, with above-average fuel loads leaving much of the territory vulnerable. Most of the territory south of Timber Creek and Borroloola is at heightened risk, following intense rainfall and flooding in parts of the territory earlier this year.
Andrew Warton, commissioner of Fire and Emergency Services NT, said the wet season had driven above-average vegetation growth, particularly in the Barkly and southern regions. He said areas where grass fuels had remained unburnt for a year or more were expected to face the greatest danger.
Alex Vaughan from the Arid Land Environment Centre said: “This is sadly the climate and nature crises in action.” He said more intense rainfall followed by accelerated drying conditions left landscapes in the NT a tinderbox ready to burn. The effects of global heating in the NT are worsened by the invasive buffel grass, introduced for pasture improvement and now dominant in large areas of inland Australia.
Warton also noted that a delayed Top End wet season could extend elevated fire danger into November, while other regions enter high-risk periods simultaneously.
New South Wales and Queensland
Low soil moisture has led to elevated fire risk for parts of New South Wales, including some areas that were badly burned during the black summer fires, and south-east Queensland as an El Niño system continues to strengthen in the country’s south-east.
In NSW, the northern tablelands, including Armidale, faces heightened bushfire risk through spring, as well as a small area of the far south coast around Bega. Ben Millington, NSW RFS deputy commissioner, said areas affected by the 2019-20 black summer fires have regrown and the fuel loads are now able to carry fire again. He said there was an “unseasonably warm” winter in which parts of northern and southern NSW also received below average rainfall, and the long-term outlook suggested more below average rainfall through spring and continuing warm conditions.
Millington said this could increase the fire risk heading into summer and the RFS was urging people to prepare now by clearing gutters and overhanging branches and preparing a bushfire survival plan. He noted that some people may experience their first fire activity since the 2019-20 season.
Parts of southern inland Queensland and the southeast are expected to experience above-average fire danger. Acting Deputy Chief Officer Aaron Howard said crews are conducting hazard-reduction burns and other mitigation work in high-risk areas.
Victoria
Victoria is among the states preparing for an early start to the bushfire season, with hotter, drier conditions expected in spring. Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said significant fire danger could emerge from October. “Victoria can expect a hotter and drier spring, which means that we could see significant bushfire risk commencing from as early as October this year, and our emergency services in Victoria are now starting to prepare for that scenario that could mean that we could see campaign fires,” he said.
Below average rainfall has increased the fire danger for parts of Victoria including the East Gippsland region, the far south-west, the Surf Coast, and the area west of Geelong to the southern Wombat Forest. The AFAC council said Victoria faced “one of its warmest and driest spring outlooks in some time”.
Western Australia and South Australia
Western Australia’s south-west is emerging from its second-driest July on record, with low rainfall forecast through spring. The AFAC snapshot lists an increased chance of bushfire in the Cape Range, Wooramel, Western Murchison, Geraldton Hills, Yalgoo, Western Malle and Fitzgerald regions. Commissioner Darren Klemm said residents should use the time now to prepare for the possibility of bushfires and not wait for a bushfire to start.
South Australia has recently received rain, leaving much of the landscape green and keeping current fire danger low. CFS Chief Officer Brett Loughlin urged people not to be complacent despite the green landscape, noting that abundant grassland was “nearly ready to burn” in northern South Australia.
Tasmania and the ACT
Tasmania is preparing for an early start to its fire season, with Deputy Chief Officer Matt Lowe focused on community readiness. Below average rainfall has increased fire danger for north-east and eastern Tasmania.
In the ACT, overall bushfire risk is expected to be around average, but fire danger could increase during dry weather.
NSW also faces severe storms
In New South Wales, drier conditions are expected, particularly west of the Great Dividing Range, increasing fire concerns. However, severe storms could also bring heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding. NSW Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib said clearing gutters can help stop flooding in the gutters that then go back in to your home.
Authorities urge early preparation
Across all jurisdictions, authorities are urging residents to understand their local risks, make a plan, and prepare before conditions become dangerous. The message is consistent: don’t wait for the fire to start.
Perspectives
- AFAC and fire authorities: Emphasize that the heightened fire danger is driven by dry conditions and increased fuel loads, and urge early preparation.
- Climate advocates (Alex Vaughan): Frame the risk as a manifestation of climate and nature crises, exacerbated by invasive species like buffel grass.