PMD issues Glof alert for GB, KP amid soaring temperatures

Lead

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued an alert for glacial lake outburst floods (Glofs) in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, predicting that soaring temperatures in the two regions are likely to persist until the first week of July. The warning came as the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) raised fresh concerns about the rapid expansion of settlements near a natural glacial lake-fed stream outside Gilgit city.

The PMD alert, issued late on Friday, said the significant warming will accelerate snow and ice melt in the glaciated valleys of both regions. It said the water level in river streams is likely to remain high, existing glacial lakes may expand rapidly, and new lakes may form from the high volume of meltwater.

Coverage Comparison

All of the reporting available for this article comes from Dawn, which carried two pieces on the subject: one focused on the PMD alert and another detailing Suparco's satellite-based warning about the settlements near Gilgit. Both reports are grounded in official statements from the two agencies. The PMD alert does not mention any disagreement among sources. Suparco's findings, meanwhile, are presented in one report as a scientific warning rather than a call for immediate evacuation, though it also stresses that unregulated construction has amplified the potential scale of damage.

The two sets of reporting complement each other: the PMD alert addresses the immediate temperature-driven risks, while Suparco's surveillance highlights the longer-term urban expansion that has increased the vulnerability of downstream communities. A claim reported in one of the PMD pieces says the number of unfrozen lakes increased from 24 to 40 in just two weeks, while a separate article states that only 24 of the 130 potentially dangerous lakes are currently unfrozen. These figures are consistent when read together—they reflect different snapshots—but they are presented without reconciliation, and no source offers an explanation for the discrepancy. The natural tone of both reports is cautionary, with an emphasis on proactive safety measures.

Key Claims

The PMD alert says soaring temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are likely to persist until the first week of July. As a result, the Met Office warns, existing glacial lakes may expand rapidly and new lakes may form, while low-lying areas near riverbeds could face a high risk of sudden inundation and flash flooding. The rapid expansion could destabilise natural ice or moraine dams, potentially triggering Glof incidents, and heavy mud and debris flows down mountain slopes could increase the likelihood of landslides in steep terrain. The PMD advised residents and visitors to stay away from riverbanks, stream beds, and nullahs, and to avoid camping, trekking, or staying near glacial lakes and narrow mountain valleys.

Suparco has identified 130 potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PGDLs) with possible risks to downstream settlements from Glofs. The most recent analysis is based on satellite images captured on May 31 and June 1, 2026. Of these, only 24 are currently unfrozen and clearly observable, with the majority still frozen. Suparco has been conducting regular surveillance of these lakes using satellite imagery and sharing updates with relevant authorities, including the Ministry of Climate Change's technical committee. Population exposure has been estimated using a grid-based approach, showing the number of people living within each 100-by-100-metre area surrounding the monitored lakes, providing insight into which downstream communities could face risks if a lake were to burst.

In a separate warning, Suparco raised concerns about the uncontrolled expansion of settlements along a natural glacial lake-fed stream near Gilgit city. A comparison of satellite images from 2013 and 2023 reveals the rapid, largely unplanned spread of buildings into the stream's natural flood conveyance zone and alluvial fan. The space agency said this has significantly reduced the stream's capacity to safely accommodate high-magnitude flows, altering natural drainage and increasing the exposure of residential and commercial structures to flood hazards. In the event of a Glof or extreme precipitation-driven flow, the confined channel and obstructed floodplain could result in sudden overbank flooding, debris flows, and widespread destruction. Suparco attributed the scale of potential damage to human negligence, weak enforcement of land-use regulations, and a lack of risk-informed urban planning, noting that construction has continued unchecked despite evidence of hazard-prone zones in satellite imagery.

The PMD alert also referenced Suparco's earlier identification of 130 dangerous lakes. Additionally, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa health department had instructed hospitals in the province to establish heatwave emergency units for sunstroke victims due to the soaring temperatures.

Dawn's reporting also notes that climate change is accelerating glacial melt, and that an El Niño event could bring a weaker monsoon, harsher heat waves, and warmer winters. According to Dawn, citing international disaster database, Pakistan has experienced 89 flood events in the last 25 years, with impacts becoming more severe due to increasing urban expansion.

Perspectives

The key viewpoints in this story come from the two official agencies involved, each contributing a distinct angle.

PMD perspective: The weather agency's focus is on immediate meteorological risk. Its alert centres on temperatures, snow and ice melt, and the potential for Glof incidents, advising the public to stay away from hazardous areas.

Suparco perspective: The space agency's emphasis is on longer-term environmental and human factors—unchecked settlement expansion and land-use change that have heightened the vulnerability of downstream populations. Its warnings frame the danger not only as a natural event but as one amplified by inadequate urban planning and weak enforcement of regulations.

Key Claims

• The PMD issued a glacial lake outburst flood alert for Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with soaring temperatures likely to last until the first week of July.
• The rapid expansion of glacial lakes could destabilise natural ice or moraine dams and potentially trigger GLOF events.
• Suparco identified 130 potentially dangerous glacial lakes, with only 24 currently unfrozen and under close observation.
• The number of unfrozen lakes increased from 24 to 40 in just two weeks, according to satellite imagery comparison.
• Uncontrolled settlement expansion along a natural glacial lake-fed stream near Gilgit city could result in sudden overbank flooding, debris flows, and widespread destruction.
• The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa health department has set up heat wave emergency units in hospitals.