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The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued weather advisories forecasting two distinct spells of rain, dust storms, and thunderstorms across Pakistan in the coming weeks. The first system is expected to affect the upper parts of the country from June 2 to June 5, while a second, more widespread system is predicted to bring similar conditions to most of the country from June 11 to June 13.

Coverage Comparison

Two advisories from the PMD, as reported by Dawn, form the basis of these forecasts. The first advisory, released on a Monday, focuses on the initial spell, while the second, issued on a Wednesday, pertains to the later system. Both reports carry the official PMD press releases and provide detailed regional breakdowns of expected weather conditions.

Key Claims

First Weather System (June 2-5)

According to the PMD advisory, a westerly wave is likely to approach the upper parts of Pakistan during this period. The advisory forecasts scattered dust storms and thunderstorms with rain in Punjab and Islamabad, with isolated heavy falls and hailstorms expected at several locations. Specific districts mentioned include Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Murree, Galliyat, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot, and Faisalabad, among others.

In Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), scattered rain, windstorms, and thunderstorms are expected, with isolated heavy falls and hailstorms in areas such as Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, and Rawalakot. For GB, intermittent rain and thunderstorms are forecast from June 4 to June 6.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will experience scattered rain and thunderstorms with occasional gaps, affecting districts including Dir, Chitral, Swat, and Peshawar. Upper Sindh, including Sukkur and Larkana, is expected to see dust storms and thunderstorms from June 2 to June 4, while northeastern Balochistan may also experience similar conditions.

The PMD warned that these conditions could cause damage to vulnerable structures and increase the risk of landslides in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir.

Second Weather System (June 11-13)

The second advisory predicts that a western disturbance will approach the upper parts of the country on June 11 and persist until June 13. Additionally, moist currents from the Arabian Sea are likely to penetrate the upper and central parts of the country from June 11.

This system is expected to bring scattered dust and windstorms, rain, and thunderstorms across most parts of the country, including Islamabad, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, northeastern Balochistan, and upper Sindh. Isolated heavy falls and hail are also anticipated.

The PMD specifically warned of urban flooding in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Lahore, and Faisalabad. The advisory also urged authorities to remain "vigilant" and the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) advised district administrations and line departments to ensure sufficient round-the-clock staffing at District Emergency Operations Centres (DEOCs).

Perspectives

The PMD advisories serve as proactive warnings to government agencies and the public, emphasizing preparedness and mitigation measures. The focus on urban flooding highlights the vulnerability of major cities to intense rainfall and the need for coordinated response.

While the forecasts are based on meteorological models and are generally reliable, weather predictions can change. The PMD's approach, as reflected in these advisories, is to provide detailed, region-specific information to enable targeted preparation.

Given that both advisories were issued in advance of the predicted events, the actual impact will depend on the evolution of the weather systems. The advisories also underscore the broader context of Pakistan's vulnerability to climate-related extreme weather events, which have increased in frequency in recent years.

As the situation develops, the PMD is likely to provide updates and refine its forecasts. Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay informed through official channels and follow guidance from local authorities.