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Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 24
The Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres open a three-game series at Petco Park on Monday, with the Padres riding a hot streak and the Pirates making lineup changes. Betting odds and pitching matchups are analyzed.
The Pittsburgh Pirates arrive at Petco Park for a three-game series against the San Diego Padres, opening on Monday, Aug. 24. The Pirates are coming off a sweep at Dodger Stadium and trail the Padres by 8.5 games in the race for the NL's third wild-card spot, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. FanGraphs.com places the Pirates' playoff odds at 0.9%.
The Padres, by contrast, swept the Twins over the weekend and own an MLB-best 21-7 record since July 24, as reported by the San Diego Union-Tribune. They are two games ahead of the Diamondbacks for the third wild-card spot and two games behind the Phillies for the second. FanGraphs gives the Padres a 68.2% chance of making the postseason.
Lineup Adjustments for Pittsburgh
Ahead of the series opener, the Pirates made three lineup changes, as reported by Sports Illustrated. Nick Gonzales bats leadoff as designated hitter for just the second time this season. Oneil Cruz returns to the lineup in center field and bats fourth after being rested the previous game. Spencer Horwitz hits eighth, his third time doing so in 2026.
Gonzales has posted a .307/.365/.397 batting line with 142 hits, 22 doubles, six homers, and 55 RBI in 123 games. His defense at third base has been a challenge, with -14 defensive runs saved and -11 outs above average, ranking worst and second-worst among third basemen, according to Sports Illustrated.
Cruz came off the 60-day injured list on Aug. 17 after a left hand fracture. In four games since returning, he has produced two home runs, a RBI-single, and a two-run triple. General manager Ben Cherington indicated that Cruz won't play every game to manage residual pain and swelling.
Horwitz has struggled since returning from a hamstring injury/concussion on Aug. 2, batting .127/.226/.145. His numbers against lefties this season also dip to .212/.333/.269, and opposing starter Robbie Ray is a left-hander.
Pitching Matchups and Odds
Monday's game features Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft (13-5, 3.68 ERA) against Padres lefty Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.20 ERA). Ashcraft tossed 17 innings of two-run ball over his last two starts, and the Pirates are 17-8 when he starts this season, Sports Illustrated notes. Ray, a trade-deadline addition, comes off a win over the Mets.
According to Sports Illustrated sources, the betting lines were pick'em at home for the Padres on the moneyline (Pirates -109, Padres -111), with a 7.5-run total (Over -103, Under -117). The run line shows Pittsburgh -1.5 (+150) and San Diego +1.5 (-182).
Player Highlights and Trends
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been a standout for the Padres, hitting an MLB-best 12 home runs since the All-Star break, including nine in August (1.128 OPS), as reported by the San Diego Union-Tribune. Jackson Merrill has also contributed, with six of his 11 second-half homers in August, posting an .885 OPS, while Manny Machado's .608 OPS this month is the lowest among Padres regulars.
For the Pirates, catcher Rafael Flores suggests as well: he has hit six home runs in 14 games in August with a .906 OPS, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. Oneil Cruz has two homers and a 1.269 OPS since returning from the injured list. Bryan Reynolds' .599 OPS in August is the lowest among Pirates regulars.
Betting Angles and Predictions
According to a Fox News World piece, the author recommends betting on the Padres and considered a prop involving Brandon Lowe. The outlet highlights that the Padres bullpen is more trusted than the Pirates.' The same source notes that Michael King, scheduled to start Tuesday, has a 2.81 ERA in night games over 93 innings and has held Pirates hitters to a .250 average over 40 at-bats.
Sports Illustrated's betting preview for Monday's game suggests a player prop for Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run at +468 odds, citing his recent success: .352 with nine homers over his last 24 games, and a .480 average with four homers over the last week. However, Ashcraft has allowed at least one home run in all but one of his starts since July 1.
The prediction from that same betting preview is the First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-135).
Additional Pitching Notes
For Tuesday, Paul Skenes (9-11, 3.95 ERA) will face Michael King (8-9, 3.38 ERA), as reported by both Fox News World and the San Diego Union-Tribune. Skenes has struggled, with his four-seam velocity down from 98.2 to 96.8 mph, and his ERA up from 91.97 last season. He has 171 strikeouts and 41 walks in 139.0 innings this season; he had 42 walks in 187.2 innings last year. Skenes has limited the Padres to three hits in 24 career at-bats against them.
King has recorded three straight quality starts, posting a 2.89 ERA with 14 strikeouts against four walks over 18.2 innings, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.
Wednesday's matchup features Pirates right-hander and Bubba Chandler (6-8, 4.38 ERA) against a Padres starter yet to be announced, likely Randy Vásquez, per the San Diego Union-Tribune. Pittsburgh will be without Konner Griffin (finger) until September, Endy Rodriguez (hip), Ryan O'Hearn (quad), and Mitch Keller is done for the season with a teres major injury.
Perspectives
Padres outlook: The Padres enter the series with momentum, having swept the Twins and owning baseball's best record since July 24. They view these games as crucial to solidify their wild-card position, with their playoff odds at 68.2%.
Pirates outlook: The Pirates have been swept in their last series and are now 8.5 games out of the wild-card race. They are making lineup adjustments to boost production, but their playoff odds remain minuscule at 0.9%.
How each outlet told it
Fox News — World
Framing: Headline emphasizes King's home and night dominance and calls Padres the smart pick. — Opinionated and confident, with phrases like 'we should feel confident backing King here.'
Facts Included:
Pirates are five games under .500, fourth in division, 18 games back of first place.
Pirates are 7.5 games back of wild card with four teams ahead.
Paul Skenes is 9-11 with 3.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Skenes has 171 strikeouts, 41 walks in 139.0 innings compared to 42 walks in 187.2 innings last year.
Skenes has held Padres to three hits in 24 at-bats.
Padres are ten games above .500 and own last wild card spot.
Michael King has 8-9 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.
King has 128 strikeouts, 2.81 ERA in night games over 93 innings.
King has held Pirates hitters to .250 average over 40 at-bats.
Brandon Lowe is 2-for-13 against King with five strikeouts.
The author recommends betting on Padres and considers Lowe prop.
Framing: Headline emphasizes the series preview aspect, noting Pirates are skidding into Petco Park. — Neutral and informative, with a focus on data and statistics.
Facts Included:
Pirates were swept at Dodger Stadium and have fallen 8.5 games behind the Padres in the race for the NL's third wild-card spot.
FanGraphs.com pegs Pirates' playoff odds at 0.9%.
Padres swept the Twins over the weekend and are an MLB-best 21-7 since July 24.
Padres are two games ahead of the Diamondbacks in the race for the NL's third wild-card spot and two games behind the Phillies.
Padres' playoff odds are 68.2% according to FanGraphs.com.
Pirates catcher Rafael Flores has hit six homers in 14 games in August with .906 OPS.
Oneil Cruz has two homers and 1.269 OPS in five games since returning from injured list.
Bryan Reynolds has .599 OPS in August.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has MLB-best 12 homers since All-Star break and nine in August (1.128 OPS).
Jackson Merrill has six homers in August (.885 OPS).
Manny Machado's .608 OPS in August is lowest among regulars.
Monday pitching matchup: Pirates RHP Braxton Ashcraft (13-5, 3.68 ERA) vs Padres LHP Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.20 ERA).
Ashcraft has 149.1 innings pitched this year, up from 69.2 last year.
Ray's career stats vs Pirates: 4.09 ERA in eight starts, including a win this year with Giants.
Tuesday: Paul Skenes (9-11, 3.95 ERA) vs Michael King (8-9, 3.38 ERA).
Skenes' velocity down from 98.2 mph to 96.8 mph; ERA up from 1.97 last year.
King has three straight quality starts, 2.89 ERA, 14 K vs 4 BB over 18.2 innings.
Wednesday: Bubba Chandler (6-8, 4.38 ERA) vs Padres TBA (likely Randy Vásquez).
Training room: Pirates' Konnor Griffin out until September, Endy Rodriguez (hip), Ryan O'Hearn (quad), Mitch Keller done for year.
Framing: Headline includes prediction, odds, probable pitchers, and prop bets for Monday's game. — Analytical and betting-focused, with a tone typical of sports betting journalism.
Facts Included:
Padres have won three in a row and seven of last 10, moving to No. 3 wild card spot.
Pirates are 8.5 games back of final wild card, six games under .500.
Pirates rank 20th in runs scored, 24th in batting average, 28th in OPS over last month.
Pirates dropped from top-five to ninth in wRC+.
San Diego set in a pick'em at home.
Braxton Ashcraft has 17.0 innings of two-run ball over last two appearances.
Pirates are 17-8 when Ashcraft starts.
Robbie Ray has 3.20 ERA, coming off win over Mets.
Odds: Run Line Pirates -1.5 (+150), Padres +1.5 (-182); Moneyline Pirates -109, Padres -111; Total 7.5.
Probable pitchers listed for Monday.
Tatis Jr. to hit a home run at +468.
Tatis hitting .352 with nine homers over last 24 games, .480 with four homers over last week.
Tatis has 17 homers and OPS over .800.
Ashcraft has allowed at least one homer in all but one start since July 1.
Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.
Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimThe Pittsburgh Pirates were swept at Dodger Stadium.