Series Context

The Pittsburgh Pirates (63-68) and Los Angeles Dodgers (79-51) close out their three-game series Sunday at Dodger Stadium, with first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers lead the season series 4-1 and enter the game riding a five-game winning streak, holding a nine-game lead in the NL West. The Pirates, winners of five of their last nine, are 7 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot.

The Pirates' Fading Playoff Hopes

A deeper look at the Pirates' season reveals a team that has struggled to build momentum. Pittsburgh has not won three consecutive games since July 11-13, when they swept a doubleheader against the Milwaukee Brewers and won the following day's game — a stretch that was 41 games ago. According to Sports Illustrated, the team's inability to string together wins has been the defining characteristic of a second-half slump that has all but ended their postseason aspirations.

The numbers illustrate the decline. FanGraphs gave the Pirates a 61.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason on June 4; by July 22, that figure had fallen to 47.2 percent, and by August 1 it stood at 27.6 percent. As of August 22, FanGraphs placed the Pirates' playoff odds at 2.0 percent, with Baseball Reference even more pessimistic at 1.8 percent.

Entering the Dodgers series, Pittsburgh was 63-66, five-and-a-half games back of the San Diego Padres for the third NL Wild Card spot, with four teams—Arizona, St. Louis, Miami, and San Diego—ahead of them. After dropping the first two games in Los Angeles, the Pirates now sit seven games back.

Second-Half Collapse

The Pirates' struggles have been stark since the All-Star break. They won just eight of their first 23 games after the break, dropping to 58-62 and falling four games below .500 for the first time in the season. The slide included a stretch of just six wins in 20 games, six consecutive series defeats, and two separate four-game losing streaks.

Offensively, the team has cratered. Before the break, the Pirates hit .263/.342/.426 for an OPS of .768; after the break, those numbers slipped to .229/.301/.351 for an OPS of .652 — a drop of more than 100 points. Bryan Reynolds, the team's cornerstone, has hit .211/.290/.311 with an OPS of .601 over 23 games in the second half. Injuries to Ryan O'Hearn, Konnor Griffin, and Oneil Cruz have compounded the problems.

The Series So Far and Sunday's Matchup

The Dodgers took the opener 5-4 in 10 innings, with the Pirates entering as +205 underdogs. Saturday's game saw Los Angeles prevail 4-3; Tarik Skubal, the Dodgers' starter, allowed three runs in seven innings while striking out 11, earning his first win since joining the team. Max Muncy went 3-for-3 with two runs scored, and Kyle Tucker drove in two runs.

Sunday's projected starters see RHP Lake Bachar (1-2, 3.75 ERA) take the mound for the Pirates against LHP Blake Snell (1-1, 3.60). Bachar, who has a 1.11 WHIP and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 69 2/3 innings, makes his sixth opening appearance. Snell has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts, striking out 20 over 15 innings overall. He permitted one earned run in six innings in a win at Colorado on Monday.

Betting Odds and Recommendations

According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the moneyline is Pirates +230 and Dodgers -285. The run line is Pirates +1.5 (+105) and Dodgers -1.5 (-125), and the over/under is set at 8.5 (Over -115, Under -105).

The betting analysis, shared across multiple outlets, predicts a 7-3 Dodgers victory and recommends wagering on the Dodgers -1.5 and the Over 8.5. The recommendation is based on the Pirates' recent struggles—they have lost seven of their last eight away games and are 30-42 against teams with at least a .500 record. The Dodgers' home favorite status has not been especially profitable, however: per Teamrankings.com, they are 18-42 against the spread as home favorites. The Pirates' over/under record is 71-57, while the Dodgers' is 60-70.

With a tough road trip ahead—San Diego and St. Louis following the Dodgers series—and 15 home games remaining in September, the Pirates need a turnaround soon. As Sports Illustrated noted, analysts have suggested they must win five or six games on the nine-game road trip to keep their season alive. A series finale victory would be a modest start.