Grocery inflation cools on both sides of the Irish Sea
Shoppers in the UK and Ireland got some relief at the checkout last month as grocery price inflation continued to ease, according to fresh data from market researchers. In the four weeks to 9 August, UK supermarket prices rose by 2.1% – down from 2.6% the previous month and the slowest pace since October 2024. Across the Irish Sea, like-for-like grocery prices in Ireland were up 3.8%, a 2% drop compared with the same period last year.
The figures come from Worldpanel by Numerator, which tracks household spending. The firm said the slowdown in the UK was accompanied by a surge in promotions, with nearly one-third (31.3%) of all supermarket sales made through deals – the highest level this year – as shoppers looked to manage their budgets.
In Ireland, spending rose 5.8% during the period, helped by warm weather that kept consumers at home and shopping for summer refreshments.
Heatwave shapes shopping baskets
The scorching temperatures left a clear mark on what people bought. In the UK, sales of classic picnic fare climbed: dips were up nearly a quarter year-on-year, with coleslaw and potato salad seeing similar gains. Quiches, olives, and chilled "finger foods" also recorded increases, while ice-cream and sorbet sales rose 26% and frozen fruit jumped 48%.
Shoppers made an extra 6.2 million trips to the cold section compared with the same period last year, according to Worldpanel. The average grocery spend in the UK over the four weeks was £410 – £14.24 less than the previous period, partly reflecting a post-World Cup lull and summer holiday spending patterns.
Sally Ball, business unit director at Worldpanel by Numerator, said the continued heat had "certainly impacted the way people are eating and drinking." She noted that soft drinks grew 15.1% in spend, while meal times were being pushed later in the day.
In Ireland, the story was similar. Shoppers spent nearly €197 million on alcoholic beverages, up 5.6%, and an additional €36.1 million on warmer-weather goods including soft drinks, antipasti, ice cream, and suncare.
Branded goods and market share movements
The data also revealed shifting preferences in Ireland. Branded goods grew strongly at 12.2% in value, adding €200 million and taking value share to 49.8%. Own-label ranges grew more modestly at 4.3%, adding €71 million, but premium own-label lines performed well, up 13.6% and adding €19 million.
Over the 12 weeks to 9 August, Lidl recorded the highest growth in Ireland at 14.8% year-on-year. Dunnes retained the largest market share at 24.1%, with year-on-year sales growth of 8.4%. Tesco held 23.8% with growth of 7.9%, SuperValu accounted for 19.4% (up 3.8% on the previous 12 weeks), and Aldi held 10.9%.
Convenience and online trends
Separate data from NielsenIQ showed convenience store sales in the UK grew by 3.6% – the strongest performance in more than a year. Online grocery sales reached £2.1bn, up 10% in value and 5% in item sales. Mike Watkins of NielsenIQ attributed some of the slowdown to post-World Cup peaks and summer holiday spending delays.