Pakstan sees decline in militant violence for 2nd straight month: PICSS

Lead

Pakistan recorded a second consecutive month of improving security indicators in April 2026, with militant attacks and related casualties declining markedly, according to a report released by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), an Islamabad-based think tank.

Coverage Comparison

The findings, as reported by Dawn, Pakistan's most respected English-language daily, present a consistent picture of declining violence. Both reports from the outlet emphasize the same key statistics and attribute the improvement to a cross-border military campaign conducted earlier in the year. No conflicting data or divergent interpretations were noted across the materials examined.

Key Claims

According to the PICSS report, Pakistan documented 85 verified militant attacks in April, down from 146 in March, representing a 42 percent decrease. Fatalities resulting from militant attacks fell from 106 in March to 60 in April, continuing a downward trend that began the previous month, when overall combat-related deaths dropped by 35 percent.

The report attributes the improvement to Pakistan's cross-border military campaign targeting militant groups and Taliban positions between February 26 and March 18. That operation, named Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, was launched on the night of February 26 following unprovoked firing by the Afghan Taliban from across the border, and concluded with a suspension and subsequent talks in Urumqi, China.

Total combat-related deaths—including those from militant attacks and security forces operations—stood at 291 in April. Militants accounted for 224 of these deaths, representing 77 percent of the total. The remaining casualties included 28 security forces personnel, 37 civilians, and two members of pro-government peace committees.

Losses among security forces personnel declined significantly, falling from 59 in March to 28 in April, a 53 percent reduction. Civilian fatalities remained relatively stable, with 37 deaths recorded in April compared to 39 in March.

The data also showed a notable decline in injuries. Overall injuries dropped from 210 in March to 131 in April, a 38 percent decrease. Civilian injuries fell from 98 to 54, while militant injuries declined from 57 to 31. Injuries among security forces personnel decreased slightly from 48 to 46, and no injuries were reported among pro-government peace committee members in April.

Regional breakdowns show Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) continued to record the highest number of militant attacks, followed by Balochistan. In mainland KP, attacks declined slightly from 51 in March to 45 in April, while fatalities remained unchanged at 34. The most significant improvement was observed in KP's tribal districts, where militant attacks dropped by 40 percent, from 35 in March to 21 in April. Balochistan also experienced a notable improvement, with militant attacks falling from 59 in March to 18 in April, a 69 percent reduction. No militant attacks were reported in Punjab, Sindh, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, or Islamabad during the month of April.

Cumulatively, during the first four months of 2026, the PICSS recorded 401 militant attacks across Pakistan. These attacks resulted in the deaths of 190 civilians, 158 security forces personnel, and seven members of pro-government peace committees. Injuries during the same period included 469 civilians, 167 security personnel, and seven peace committee members. Security forces arrested 121 suspects nationwide during the first four months of 2026.

Perspectives

While the report presents a positive trend in security metrics, it is important to note that the data reflects a specific period and may not capture the full complexity of the security situation. The decline in violence follows a significant military operation, and the sustainability of these gains remains uncertain. Additionally, the report's attribution of improvement to cross-border operations is based on the think tank's analysis, and other factors could contribute to the observed changes. Independent verification of the data, beyond the PICSS report, is not yet available.