OPEC+ countries’ output down 1.63 mbd in April — report

Coverage Comparison

Reports published Wednesday by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) paint a picture of significant shortfalls in OPEC+ oil production for April 2026, though the exact numbers vary between the two organizations.

Three reports from Russia's TASS news agency, all dated May 13, cite OPEC and IEA data. According to one TASS report citing OPEC, OPEC+ countries posted a decrease in oil production in April 2026 by 1.629 million barrels per day (mbd), with output falling 9.908 mbd below the target when voluntary cuts and compensations are considered.

Another OPEC-based report cited by TASS focuses on Russia specifically, noting that Russia's crude oil production declined by 107,000 barrels per day (bpd) month-on-month to 9.057 mbd, with the country's output 580,000 bpd below its OPEC+ target.

A third TASS report, based on IEA data, indicates a smaller overall shortfall. According to this report, OPEC+ countries reduced output by 820,000 bpd, with actual production of 34.13 mbd, and a target-to-actual gap of about 9.25 mbd.

The discrepancy between the OPEC and IEA figures — a 1.629 mbd decline vs. an 820,000 bpd decline, and differing shortfall totals — appears to stem from different methodologies and baselines used by the two organizations. The reports were not directly contradictory but highlighted the complexity of measuring compliance with the production cuts.

Key Claims

Production Decline and Shortfall

According to TASS, citing OPEC, OPEC+ countries' oil output fell by 1.629 mbd in April 2026, with actual production 9.908 mbd below the planned 37.906 mbd (including all voluntary cuts and compensation schedules). The IEA report, as cited by TASS, puts the decline at 830,000 bpd, with actual output at 34.13 mbd against a target of 36.15 mbd, indicating a shortfall of around 9.25 mbd.

Russia's Production

Russia produced 9.057 mbd in April 2026, down 107,000 bpd month-on-month, according to OPEC data relayed by TASS. The country was 580,000 bpd below its quota of 9.637 mbd. Both the OPEC and IEA reports (as cited by TASS) confirm the figure of 580,000 bpd (though IEA puts it at 810,000 bpd), but the IEA attributes a larger shortfall for Russia.

Kazakhstan Exceeds Target

Kazakhstan was a notable exception, with production exceeding its planned volume by 1 mbd according to OPEC, or 930,000 bpd above target per IEA data. Algeria also overproduced relative to its quota by 5,000 bpd (OPEC) or 10,000 bpd (IEA).

MidEast Producers Lag

OPEC's report, as cited by TASS, attributes sharp production lags for several Middle Eastern countries to the ongoing conflict in the region. For example, Saudi Arabia was reported to be 3.398 mbd behind its quota (IEA says 3.18 mbd), Iraq by 2.91 mbd (IEA: 2.85), and the UAE by 1.406 mbd (IEA: 0.94). The IEA's figures for each country differ from OPEC's, but the direction is consistent.

Perspectives

OPEC's View

OPEC's own report, as relayed by TASS, emphasizes the impact of the Middle East conflict, the inclusion of compensation schedules, and the shortfalls of large producers like Russia. The tone is matter-of-fact, with no explicit attribution beyond data.

IEA's View

The IEA's assessment, as presented by TASS, uses a different methodology and shows a lower level of overproduction (e.g., Saudi Arabia's shortfall quoted slightly higher), but also underscores that overall production remains well below agreed targets. The IEA likely uses secondary sources and may have different baseline data.

Geopolitical Context

The situation occurs within a context of Russian oil production limited by the OPEC+ agreement since 2024. The reported deficits, especially in the Middle East, may have implications for global supply and prices, but the reports do not speculate on market impact.

Conclusion

Both the OPEC and IEA reports, as summarized by TASS, agree that OPEC+ countries, in aggregate, produced well below their agreed targets in April 2026. They differ in the magnitude of the shortfall and decline, and in the exact numbers for individual countries. The discrepancy could reflect different data sources, definitions, and baselines. As analysis emerges, these differences may be resolved, but for now, the takeaway is a general shortfall - with Russia and other countries behind their planned output and Kazakhstan overproducing.

This article relies on reporting from TASS and does not independently verify the data.