OPEC+ Output Falls Short of Targets in May, Reports Show

Three separate reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that OPEC+ countries significantly underproduced relative to their agreed targets in May 2026, with discrepancies in the exact figures depending on the source.

According to OPEC's monthly report, the seven OPEC+ nations implementing voluntary output cuts pumped 21.717 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026, falling 7.646 million bpd short of the planned production level of 29.363 million bpd. This calculation includes voluntary reductions and compensation obligations. The shortfall was attributed partly to the conflict in the region affecting several Middle Eastern producers.

A separate OPEC report, which excludes Libya, Iran, and Venezuela (countries exempt from the deal) as well as the UAE (which withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1), put OPEC+ production at 26.318 million bpd against a target of 34.559 million bpd, resulting in an underproduction of 8.241 million bpd. The same report noted that among OPEC members exempt from output curbs, Libya's output fell by 5,000 bpd to 1.302 million bpd, Iran's dropped by 546,000 bpd to 2.33 million bpd amid the Middle East conflict, while Venezuela increased production by 36,000 bpd to 1.072 million bpd.

The IEA, in its own report, estimated that OPEC+ countries voluntarily limiting output produced 24.26 million bpd in May against a target of 33.7 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9.44 million bpd. The IEA also reported that total oil production by all OPEC+ countries declined to 30.3 million bpd in May, a reduction of 40,000 bpd from the previous month.

Country-Level Performance

All three reports agree on the general pattern of underproduction among major OPEC+ members, though specific figures vary slightly between OPEC and the IEA.

According to OPEC data, Russia missed its May quota by 690,000 bpd, Iraq fell 2.845 million bpd short, Saudi Arabia was 3.316 million bpd below target, and Kuwait lagged by 2.039 million bpd. Algeria virtually met its quota, falling just 1,000 bpd short. Kazakhstan exceeded its target by 1.162 million bpd, and Oman by 83,000 bpd.

The IEA's figures show Kazakhstan as the only major OPEC+ country producing above its target, exceeding it by 360,000 bpd. The IEA reported Iraq's production at 2.85 million bpd below target, Saudi Arabia at 3.64 million bpd below, Russia at 960,000 bpd below, Kuwait at 1.97 million bpd below, and Algeria at 20,000 bpd below. The IEA said Oman met its quota.

Compensation and Future Quotas

At the latest meeting of the seven OPEC+ nations, it was agreed to extend the compensation period for previous overproduction until the end of December 2026 for countries adhering to voluntary cuts. The meeting also decided to increase July quotas by 188,000 bpd, according to OPEC's report.

The reports did not specify which countries would receive increased quotas in July, nor did they provide details on how the compensation mechanism would be implemented.

Regional Conflict Cited as Factor

All three reports attribute the significant production shortfalls among several Middle Eastern nations to the ongoing conflict in the region. The reports did not provide further details on the specific impact of the conflict on individual countries' production capabilities.