Only 1 in 10 Europeans see US as an ally — study

Lead

A new survey published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveals that only 11% of Europeans across 15 countries view the United States as an ally that shares their interests and values — a historic low. The figure has fallen sharply from 22% in November 2024, when Donald Trump won the US presidential election, and from 16% six months ago, according to the report released on Wednesday.

The survey, conducted in May across Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, also found that majorities in all countries doubt the US would come to their aid if they were attacked. The findings come ahead of critical G7 and NATO summits in France and Turkey over the coming weeks.

Coverage comparison

Multiple outlets reported on the survey, with most highlighting the historic low in European confidence in the US as a security guarantor. Deutsche Welle emphasized the trend as a "historic low" and linked the decline to Trump's return to the White House, citing his policies on tariffs, threats to NATO, and remarks about Greenland. The Guardian described the results as revealing "deep European distrust in the US," and also attributed the shift to Trump's actions, including "Middle East aggression, threats against Greenland, vows to withdraw troops from European bases and scepticism on the future of NATO."

TASS, the Russian state news agency, reported the survey in a more neutral tone, focusing on the statistical findings without attributing causality. Two separate TASS articles covered the broad findings and the country-level defense spending data, noting that Italy was the only country where citizens generally opposed higher military spending.

All sources agree on the core figures: only 11% view the US as an ally, and majorities doubt US military assistance. However, the framing differs in the level of emphasis on Trump's role and the urgency for European self-reliance.

Key claims

• Only 11% of Europeans consider the US an ally, down from 22% in November 2024 and 16% six months ago, according to the ECFR survey reported by all four sources.
• A majority of respondents in every country surveyed do not believe the US would defend them in the event of a military attack, as reported by all outlets. Poland had the highest confidence at 38%, while Spain had the lowest at 13%, according to TASS.
• Most respondents believe transatlantic relations would improve once Trump leaves office, with one exception: Bulgaria, according to Deutsche Welle.
• Europeans show strong support for reducing dependence on US weaponry and increasing purchases of European-made military equipment, as reported by multiple sources.
• Nearly half of respondents backed joint EU action to finance defense spending, while support for a purely European defense system replacing NATO was limited, per TASS.
• Italians are the exception to the general support for higher defense spending, with 28% supporting and 59% opposing, according to TASS.

Perspectives

The survey's authors, Jana Kobzová and Paweł Zerka, interpret the results as evidence of "clear public demand for greater self-reliance" and a need to hedge against US defense guarantees, creating a "window for Europe's leaders to go further and faster" on security. The Guardian quoted them extensively, noting the "striking degree of confidence" Europeans have that neighboring countries would come to their aid.

Deutsche Welle placed the findings in the context of Trump's second-term actions, including tariffs, threats to NATO, and the US decision to withdraw troops from Germany, which have eroded trust that was previously taken for granted.

The survey itself, based on polling in April and May across 13 EU countries plus Switzerland and the UK, was published by the Brussels-based think tank. It underscores a shift in European public opinion toward a more self-reliant defense posture, even as many Europeans still hope for improved relations with Washington after Trump leaves office.

While the data is consistent across outlets, the causal interpretation varies: Western sources emphasize Trump's policies as the primary driver, while TASS does not assign blame. The survey's release ahead of major summits adds urgency to the debate over Europe's security architecture.