Lead
Pauline Hanson's One Nation has surged in opinion polls, upending assumptions about Australian politics and making the next federal election difficult to predict. According to polling analysis, the party has climbed from about 6% of the vote at the last election to first or second in some recent surveys, a rise that has put the political landscape into what one analyst calls “unknown territory.”
Coverage comparison
Reports from ABC Australia and The Guardian describe a party feeding on widespread voter frustration with the mainstream parties, driven by cost-of-living pressures and housing affordability concerns. Both outlets note that One Nation’s support is drawing from former Coalition and Labor voters, a shift that complicates traditional election forecasting.
The Guardian’s analysis highlights that pollsters and election experts have historically relied on preference flows from previous elections to project two-party preferred numbers. With One Nation’s rise, those models are less reliable. George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAu, told The Guardian that “unknown territory” now characterises election forecasting.
ABC Australia’s coverage focuses on Labor’s response, reporting that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers are signalling a willingness to accelerate reform as an answer to voter frustration. Albanese cited former prime minister Paul Keating’s line that “the Labor Party is a bit like a bicycle; if you stop pedalling, it falls over,” suggesting a gear shift from the cautious approach of his first term.
Key claims
One Nation’s support is coming from both former Coalition and Labor voters, as reported by The Guardian. This cross-party appeal has contributed to the party’s rise from a distant 6% in the last election to a primary vote share in the high 20s and low 30s in May and June polling, according to the same report. The Guardian also notes that One Nation would make it into the final three in well over 100 seats on current numbers, compared to just 26 seats last election.
However, the party faces a serious structural challenge: inner metropolitan electorates. Hasanakos points out that One Nation continues to perform poorly in these seats, which means the party would likely have to win three-quarters of the 107 seats in outer metropolitan, rural, and regional areas to attain government. The Guardian’s analysis includes this assessment, noting the party’s limited appeal in urban inner-city areas.
Pauline Hanson herself has considered running for the House of Representatives in 2028, according to The Guardian’s report, and has said she has the ability to do the job of prime minister. This ambition, however, runs up against the electoral arithmetic of seat distribution.
The economic drivers behind One Nation’s rise are detailed in The Guardian’s explanatory coverage. Households are experiencing a cost-of-living squeeze that some economists describe as a “stagflation impulse,” with elevated inflation and a stagnant economy. Housing costs are particularly acute, with younger generations priced out of home ownership. Consumer sentiment surveys show Australians are experiencing “deep pessimism,” according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute.
Jordan McSwiney, a research fellow at the University of Canberra’s Centre for Deliberative Democracy, told The Guardian that One Nation has tied housing affordability concerns to immigration, allowing the party to address issues that are “very front of mind to people, like the economy.” The report cites One Nation’s intention to blame housing costs on immigration, a strategy that McSwiney says is unusual for the party, which is typically not comfortable on economic policy and housing.
ABC Australia’s coverage also notes that both the prime minister and treasurer have made relatively modest concessions on tax changes while insisting they were not spooked by the polls. Chalmers reportedly sees a lesson in the demise of British Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, suggesting a readiness to push reforms despite political risks. Labor’s rank-and-file members are also pushing for further reform, according to ABC, indicating internal pressure to move faster.