Lead

Over the past several months, US President Donald Trump has made a series of aggressive threats against Iran, often attached to tight deadlines, only to walk them back at the eleventh hour. This pattern — escalate, then retreat — has become a defining feature of the US approach to the conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Despite repeated claims of imminent peace, the war continues into its 23rd week, with no end in sight.

Coverage comparison

Reporting from Al Jazeera and Dawn traces a consistent sequence: Trump issues a dramatic ultimatum, then, as the deadline approaches, he announces a suspension or a ceasefire. The most striking example came on April 7, when Trump warned that "a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again" if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, with two hours to the deadline, he walked back the threat and announced a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Islamabad.

Dawn's coverage notes that Trump has made "some of the most aggressive public threats about military action of any modern US president," and that he has walked back many of them. The outlet catalogues a series of statements: on March 21, Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully opened within 48 hours; two days later he extended the deadline, citing "very good and productive conversations"; on April 5, he unleashed a profanity-laden post; and on April 7, he made the "whole civilization" threat, only to suspend it later that day.

Al Jazeera's coverage frames this as a deliberate strategy: Trump "ups the ante, shaking up the markets, and then dials it back down at the 11th hour, apparently hoping this strategy will influence negotiations." The outlet also highlights the human toll, with ordinary Iranians describing a "toxic environment of uncertainty" and choosing to distance themselves from the constant headlines to protect their mental health.

Key claims

  • On April 7, Trump threatened that "a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again" if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but walked back the threat hours later, announcing a two-week ceasefire brokered by Islamabad.
  • The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in June, announcing a ceasefire and a 60-day period to complete negotiations for a lasting peace.
  • The conflict re-intensified in July.
  • Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian renewed his support for a deal, saying he believes the memorandum of understanding signed with the US in June will act as "the centre of gravity of Iran's foreign relations in the future."
  • Iran's rial has depreciated against the US dollar, changing hands for about 1.91 million against the dollar in Tehran's open market.
  • The US has a blockade on Iran's southern ports.
  • Iran denies it is talking to the US, saying it is only talking to Oman about how to manage the Strait of Hormuz.

Perspectives

Iranians on the ground

Iranians are trying to protect their mental health by avoiding the constant barrage of news, as described by Faezeh, a 27-year-old financial firm employee in Tehran: "His words certainly impact our lives, but I try to escape this toxic environment of uncertainty by focusing on what I can control and protecting myself and my loved ones." Many expect the economic situation to worsen, including further depreciation of the currency.

The Iranian government

Iran's leadership has sought to project continuity and calm. President Masoud Pezeshkian has voiced support for the June memorandum of understanding, calling it a future cornerstone of Iran's foreign relations. At the same time, Tehran denies holding direct talks with the US, saying it is only communicating with Oman about managing the Strait of Hormuz.

The US President's approach

Trump's public statements oscillate between bellicose threats and optimistic declarations of impending deals. On June 17, he praised Iran's new leaders as "very smart" and "far less radicalized" than their predecessors, but by July 8 he had changed his tone, calling them "scum." This seesaw approach, as described in the coverage, is seen as an attempt to influence negotiations while keeping markets guessing.