Tertius News is an AI-native newsroom: an AI model reads the source articles linked below — on this story, all of them from one outlet — and extracts what that outlet reported, claim by claim. How this works →

Oil production in Russia currently below beginning-of-year levels — Novak

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said oil production is currently below levels at the start of 2026 but expects to meet OPEC+ quota this year. He also discussed a global market deficit and OPEC+ limitations amid the Middle East conflict.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 outlet · 12 articles Version 1 Coverage Jun 4–5, 2026 Published Aug 14

Coverage Overview

At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) this week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak provided an update on the country's oil production and the broader energy market. Speaking alongside other officials, Novak's remarks were reported exclusively by Russia's state news agency TASS, which offered a series of dispatches from the forum. The reports centered on Russia's current output, its OPEC+ commitments, and the challenges facing global markets.

Key Claims

Production below start of year: Novak told reporters that Russian oil production is "indeed somewhat lower now than at the beginning of the year," as reported by TASS. He did not provide specific figures for current output.
OPEC+ quota expectations: Russia expects to reach oil production levels within its OPEC+ quota this year, Novak said, citing a June quota of 9.762 million barrels per day.
Global market deficit: Novak said that around 12 million barrels of oil per day are not entering the global market, describing the situation as an unprecedented crisis with nothing comparable in the 20th century.
OPEC+ limitations: Novak noted that OPEC+ countries are "effectively limited" in their ability to increase output should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, due to production cuts by several member states amid the Middle East conflict.
Export infrastructure: TASS reported Novak as saying Russia is maximizing the use of its oil export infrastructure, and that production will increase as refineries return to normal operations.
Diesel export ban possibility: Novak said the government could impose a ban on diesel fuel exports "if necessary," though he stressed there is currently no such need.

Perspectives

Russian Government Viewpoint

According to TASS, Novak's statements frame Russia as both a responsible OPEC+ participant and a victim of external market disruptions. His remarks consistently emphasize Russia's intention to meet its quota and restore production levels, while highlighting the constraints imposed by the Middle East conflict on the broader alliance's ability to stabilize prices.

Global Market Concerns

Without independent verification, Novak's characterization of a 12-million-barrel daily deficit and an "unprecedented" crisis reflects a serious assessment of market conditions. His warning that the full impact of the energy crisis has not yet been felt, due to existing reserves, suggests potential for further volatility. However, these claims come solely from Russian official sources and have not been corroborated by other international outlets.

UAE and OPEC+ Dynamics

Novak's comments on the UAE potentially returning to OPEC+ if it wishes reinforce the voluntary nature of the alliance. His assertion that OPEC+ is an effective tool that must be maintained aligns with Russia's broader support for the group, even as it acknowledges current limitations in regulating the market.

Context and Corroboration

All reports cited in this article originate from TASS, the Russian state news agency. While this provides direct access to official statements, it means the information has not been independently verified by multiple international news organizations. Readers should be aware of the source's institutional perspective.

The 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, held June 3-6, serves as a key platform for Russian officials to present their views on economic and energy matters. The timing of these remarks comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions, which have significantly impacted global energy flows.

As of this writing, no major international news outlets have reported independently on Novak's specific claims, though the forum's proceedings have been covered by various media. The statistical figures cited — such as the 12-million-barrel deficit and Russia's June quota — remain as stated by Novak and have not been confirmed by independent data sources.

Outlook

The coming months will test Russia's ability to meet its production quota while managing domestic refining schedules and export infrastructure. Novak's statements suggest confidence in recovery, but the broader market context, including the Middle East conflict and OPEC+ constraints, adds uncertainty. Whether Russia fully aligns with its quota by year-end remains an open question that analysts will monitor closely.