Oil prices to entrench in $75-80 per barrel range in next 2 months — expert

Lead

Oil prices are expected to stabilize in the $75–80 per barrel range over the next one and a half to two months, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, according to Alexey Belogoryev, Research Director at the Institute for Energy and Finance. Speaking to TASS, Belogoryev said he expects Brent crude to decline further to that corridor and remain there while transit is restored and while 60-day negotiations on Iran's nuclear program proceed, provided the announced agreements are signed on June 19.

Belogoryev noted that attempts to break below $75 are possible, but difficult to sustain, because market participants must price in the possibility of resuming hostilities if negotiations fail. He estimated the probability of failure at roughly 50/50, citing strong "hawk" factions in both countries and the factor of Israel, which he said could resume hostilities in Lebanon at any time and disrupt or slow the talks.

Coverage Comparison

Three TASS articles, published June 15, June 16, and June 30, present somewhat different forecasts. The earliest piece, quoting Alexey Belogoryev, predicted prices would entrench in the $75–80 range over the next two months as Hormuz shipping is restored. A later piece, quoting Maria Belova, the Research Director at the analytics firm Implementa, projected a $70–75 per barrel range through the end of the year, adding that a deeper decline is unlikely without excess supply or a significant cooling in demand.

The third report, also featuring Belogoryev, revised his view to suggest Brent crude would remain above $70 per barrel in the coming months, fluctuating primarily within a $70–77 range, and noted that steady supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could resume by early August if there is no further escalation. These variations reflect differing assumptions about the speed of recovery and the geopolitical backdrop.

Key Claims

• Brent crude prices may fall to $75–80 per barrel and remain there for the next one and a half to two months while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is being restored.
• Brent crude prices are unlikely to fall below $70 per barrel after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a reasonable range through the end of the year being $70–75 per barrel.
• Prices are expected to remain above $70 until a final peace agreement in the Middle East, after which they could decline to around $65 per barrel.
• Steady supplies of oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz could resume by early August, but vessel traffic in the opposite direction remains extremely limited.
• The return of rhythmic supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will take about a month and a half.
• Physical supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could begin recovering within several weeks, but full restoration would take between six months and one and a half years.
• The damaged LNG plant in Qatar, accounting for 17% of the country's production capacity or about 13 million tons, would take three to five years to restore, according to official statements by QatarEnergy.
• 70% of halted production could be resumed within three months.
• A transitional period may emerge in which exchange-traded prices decline while the physical market faces localized shortages.

Analysis and Outlook

Analysts pointed to several factors that could affect the pace of recovery. Belogoryev noted that the months-long crisis has undermined confidence in the reliability of supplies from the Persian Gulf, and some importers have rebuilt logistics chains as much as they could. "The lack of confidence that all this will not fail at the last moment, of course, will force importers to act quite carefully," he said, adding that demand for Persian Gulf oil may not return to pre-war levels immediately.

Maria Belova said that physical supplies of oil and LNG could start recovering within a few weeks, but full restoration would take longer. She suggested that a reasonable target range for Brent through the end of the year would be $70–75 per barrel if Middle Eastern supplies return quickly. Belova also observed that futures prices often reflect expectations about future balances, while local physical flows depend on logistics and contractual arrangements, so the divergence between paper and physical markets could persist.

Alexander Frolov, editor-in-chief of the Infotek information and analytical portal, cautioned that forecasts are premature. He said that even after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, it will take months for global supplies to recover, because time is needed for already loaded tankers to complete their voyages and for oil production in Persian Gulf countries to return to full capacity.

All forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, particularly around the outcome of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and the potential for renewed conflict in the region. As Belogoryev noted, "It is still too early to say that the market is about to return to balance. The situation remains complicated."