Oil prices may hold at $80-90 for weeks after US-Iran truce

Lead

Oil prices are likely to remain in the $80–90 per barrel range for the next two to three weeks before beginning a gradual decline if the US and Iran sustain their newly announced truce, according to analysts cited by TASS. The assessment comes after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran on April 7, a move proposed by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which is contingent on Tehran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting from TASS, the Russian state news agency, featured analysis from three separate experts, each offering a distinct perspective on the oil market's trajectory. While all sources agree on the central facts of the truce announcement and the key players involved, they diverge on the likely impact on prices. One analyst cautioned that a sharp decline is unlikely in the near term due to a divergence between physical and futures markets, while another emphasized the wide range of possible outcomes, from $60 to $150 per barrel, depending on news flow and logistical recovery. A third analyst offered a more specific forecast of $80–90 per barrel for the coming weeks, with a potential easing later in the year if hostilities do not resume.

Key Claims

• Truce announcement and players: Multiple reports confirm that President Trump announced a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran on April 7, following a proposal by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The ceasefire is conditional on Iran's agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz fully and safely.
• Upcoming talks: Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif has invited Iranian and US delegations to talks in Islamabad on April 10. According to CNN, as relayed by TASS, the US delegation will include Vice President J.D. Vance, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.
• Physical versus futures divergence: One analyst, Kirill Bakhtin of BCS World of Investments, noted a sharp divergence between the physical oil market and futures, with physical prices showing a premium of more than $30 per barrel. He suggested that buyers may increase purchases during the truce window, making a sharp price decline unlikely in the near term.
• Range of potential price outcomes: Alexander Frolov, editor-in-chief of the InfoTEK analytical portal, emphasized the speculative nature of current market movements, stating that oil could equally fall to $60 per barrel or rise to $150 per barrel depending on how the truce situation develops.
• Gradual decline forecast: Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director at the Institute for Energy and Finance, predicted that prices will stay within the $80–90 range for two to three weeks, then potentially approach $70 per barrel in May–June if the truce holds and no new shipping problems emerge. He sees a trend toward $60 per barrel by the fourth quarter if geopolitical factors recede.
• Logistics and infrastructure recovery: Frolov highlighted that the speed of logistics recovery is a key factor, noting that restoring supply depends on technical aspects of production ramp-up and the extent of infrastructure damage. He referenced volumes of 8–11 million barrels of oil per day and about 120 billion cubic meters of LNG per year (in regasified terms).
• Finam's revised forecast: Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko told TASS that the company has revised its annual forecast for average Brent price this year to $65–70 per barrel, with a possibility of further upward revision if the conflict drags on.

Perspectives

Optimistic Scenario

If the truce holds and evolves into lasting peace, analysts suggest that pressure on the global economy would ease, allowing physical supply volumes to return to previous levels. In such a scenario, prices could gradually decline to around $70 per barrel by mid-year and approach $60 by the fourth quarter, as the geopolitical premium deflates over two to three months.

Cautious Scenario

A more cautious view, articulated by Bakhtin, points to the divergence between physical and futures markets and the possibility of talks collapsing. Buyers may increase purchases during the truce window, which could prevent sharp price declines in the near term, keeping prices elevated until a final agreement is announced.

Bearish Scenario

Frolov's analysis highlights the possibility of a rapid political peace followed by a slow physical recovery, as infrastructure damage and technical factors could delay supply restoration for months. In that case, the risk of an energy shortage remains, and prices could spike to $150 per barrel even if political tensions subside.

Bearish Alternative

Belogoryev also outlined a scenario where the Iranian crisis ends without a real peace agreement, leaving the threat of renewed conflict hanging over the Gulf. This would create a significant geopolitical premium that could keep oil prices above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, preventing any sustained decline.

Conclusion

The oil market is poised for volatility in the coming weeks as the US–Iran truce is tested. Analysts generally agree that prices will remain elevated in the short term, with the $80–90 range seen as the most likely near-term scenario, but they disagree on the pace and extent of any decline. Key factors to watch include the outcome of Islamabad talks on April 10, the speed of insurance premium reductions for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the physical recovery of supply. Until a final agreement is reached, energy prices are likely to remain sensitive to every development in this evolving situation.