Oil price rises and markets slide after Trump warning to Iran

Lead

Global markets swung sharply this week as President Donald Trump's comments on the conflict with Iran alternately fueled hopes of a quick resolution and then dashed them, sending oil prices on a volatile ride and stock indexes in opposing directions.

On Thursday, oil prices soared and stocks slumped after Trump vowed in a televised speech to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the coming weeks, according to multiple reports. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped 6.5% to more than $107.60 a barrel, as reported by The Guardian, while another report from Deutsche Welle put the increase at 5% to $106.22. The discrepancy likely reflects different timing of the reports.

Major stock indexes fell across Asia, Europe, and the US. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, with three out of every four stocks in the index losing ground, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 545 points, or 1.2%, according to the South China Morning Post. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down 2.4%, as reported by The Guardian.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting on the market reaction has been consistent across outlets, though the framing differed from optimistic to negative depending on the day's events. On Wednesday, The Guardian reported that oil prices tumbled and stock markets rallied after Trump said the war in Iran would end in "two to three weeks." Brent crude dropped to $99.78 a barrel, down more than 15% from Tuesday, according to that report. Japanese and South Korean stocks surged 5% and 8%, respectively, and European markets followed suit.

By Thursday, however, the narrative reversed. Trump's Wednesday evening address, in which he said the US would continue attacks on Iran "extremely hard over the next two to three weeks," erased the previous day's optimism, according to the South China Morning Post and The Guardian. The Guardian noted that Trump "failed to provide any guidance on how the US-Israeli conflict with Iran might come to an end," quoting an analyst who called it "the most dramatic April fools of recent years."

Deutsche Welle's coverage focused on the market data, reporting a 1.4% drop in Tokyo's Nikkei 225 and a 3.4% fall in South Korea's Kospi, while US stock futures slid 1% and European futures sank over 1.5%.

Key Claims

• Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday, with Brent crude jumping between 5% and 6.5% depending on the report, following Trump's pledge to continue attacking Iran.
• Earlier in the week, oil prices had dropped after Trump suggested the war would end in "two to three weeks," with Brent falling to $99.78 a barrel, down more than 15% from Tuesday.
• Stock markets in Asia fell on Thursday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.4% to 2.4% and South Korea's Kospi losing up to 3.4%.
• The S&P 500 fell 1.1% on Thursday, with three out of every four stocks declining, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 545 points, or 1.2%.
• Crude oil prices have been the main driver of sharp swings in global stock markets, as shipping traffic has been severely curtailed in the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's traded oil passes through during peacetime.

Perspectives

Market analysts quoted by The Guardian expressed skepticism about the prospects for a quick resolution. Chris Beauchamp of IG said investors were "back to pricing in economic catastrophe," citing concerns about prolonged oil supply disruptions. Emma Wall of Hargreaves Lansdown noted that markets were "choosing to believe the optimism from the White House" but warned that energy disruption would likely impact inflation and growth.

Trump, in his address, blamed Iran for rising oil prices, which he said would be "short-term." He claimed the increase was "entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries," according to Deutsche Welle.

The conflict has pushed US gasoline prices to an average of $4 a gallon, the first time since 2022, and prompted the Philippines to declare a national energy emergency last week.

This article is based on reporting from Deutsche Welle, The Guardian, and the South China Morning Post. Numbers may vary slightly due to the timing of market movements.