October 7 biggest issue for undecided voters as Yashar! stays ahead of Likud at 23 seats - poll

Lead

Three separate opinion polls published in July 2026 project Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! party as the largest faction in the Knesset, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, according to reporting by the Jerusalem Post. The surveys, conducted by Maariv, N12, and Channel 12, show varying seat counts for the major parties and differing views on who is best suited to lead the country.

Coverage comparison

A Maariv poll, reported on July 24, placed Yashar! at 23 seats, with Likud at 20 seats — described as Likud's lowest since June 2025. An N12 poll, published July 28, showed Yashar! at 23 seats and Likud at 22 mandates, each one seat fewer than the previous week's N12 survey. A Channel 12 poll, reported July 22, projected Yashar! at 24 seats, the highest figure for the party across the three surveys. Neither the Channel 12 nor the N12 poll provided a corresponding seat count for Likud in the same sentence, though the N12 poll listed Likud at 22.

The three surveys also differed on the fortunes of other parties. According to the Maariv poll, Naftali Bennett's Together party gained one seat to reach 17; Yisrael Beytenu rose by one seat to 10; Yair Golan's Democrats remained unchanged at 11; Otzma Yehudit gained one seat to reach eight; and the Religious Zionist Party gained one seat to rise to five. The opposition bloc lost one seat but retained a majority of 61, while Netanyahu's coalition strengthened to 49 seats. Arab parties remained stable at 10 seats.

The N12 poll showed a different picture: Together lost one seat to sit at 14 mandates; the Democrats lost one mandate to 10 seats; Yisrael Beytenu maintained nine seats; Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Otzma Yehudit all maintained eight seats; the Arab parties Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am received five seats each; Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party received four seats; and the new party Bayit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim passed the electoral threshold and gained four seats. The N12 poll also reported that due to Bayit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim passing the threshold, opposition parties reached 70 seats, compared to the coalition's 50, and that this was the first time non-Arab opposition parties reached 60 seats.

The Channel 12 poll, conducted by the Midgam Institute in cooperation with iPanel and reported by analyst Amit Segal, indicated that the entry of new parties had changed the balance between political blocs to some extent. It did not provide full seat counts for all parties but reported that the Zionist opposition parties received 59 seats, and that the distribution of seats between blocs remained unchanged from the previous survey.

Key claims

• Yashar! seat projections: 23 seats (Maariv poll), 23 seats (N12 poll), 24 seats (Channel 12 poll).
• Likud seat projections: 20 seats (Maariv poll), 22 mandates (N12 poll).
• Together seat projections: 17 seats, up one (Maariv poll); 14 mandates, down one (N12 poll).
• Democrats seat projections: 11 seats, unchanged (Maariv poll); 10 mandates, down one (N12 poll).
• Yisrael Beytenu: 10 seats, up one (Maariv poll); 9 seats, maintained (N12 poll).
• Otzma Yehudit: 8 seats, up one (Maariv poll); 8 seats, maintained (N12 poll).
• Religious Zionist Party: 5 seats, up one (Maariv poll); 4 seats (N12 poll).
• Arab parties: 10 seats total, stable (Maariv poll); Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am each at 5 seats (N12 poll).
• Bayit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim: passed electoral threshold, 4 seats (N12 poll).
• Prime ministerial suitability: Naftali Bennett leads Netanyahu (Maariv poll); Eisenkot and Netanyahu tied at 38% (N12 poll); Eisenkot leads Netanyahu (Channel 12 poll).
• Voter preferences: Coalition voters satisfied with Netanyahu-haredi agreements and want haredi parties in government (Channel 12 poll). Opposition voters favor Arab party support over new elections (Channel 12 poll).

Perspectives

Yashar! party and its leader Gadi Eisenkot: Across all three polls, Yashar! is projected as the largest party. The Channel 12 poll found Eisenkot remained the preferred candidate for prime minister, ahead of Netanyahu. The N12 poll showed Eisenkot and Netanyahu tied at 38% on that question. The Maariv poll reported that former prime minister Naftali Bennett led Netanyahu as the most suitable candidate for prime minister.

Coalition and opposition blocs: The Maariv poll indicated the opposition retained a majority of 61 seats while Netanyahu's coalition strengthened to 49. The N12 poll gave the opposition 70 seats and the coalition 50, noting that non-Arab opposition parties reached 60 seats for the first time. The Channel 12 poll reported that Zionist opposition parties received 59 seats and that the overall bloc distribution was unchanged from the previous survey.

New and smaller parties: The N12 poll highlighted that Bayit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim, led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, passed the electoral threshold for the first time, gaining four seats. The Maariv poll noted that Yesodot Israel, Balad, and Blue and White failed to cross the threshold.

Voter attitudes on government formation: According to the Channel 12 poll, most opposition voters said they would prefer to form a government relying on outside support from an Arab party if their bloc fell short of 61 seats. Coalition voters expressed satisfaction with agreements between Netanyahu and the haredi parties and wanted those parties in the next government.