Number of NEETs in UK Could Hit 1.25 Million by Early 2030s, Milburn Review Will Say

Lead

The UK risks a 25% rise in the number of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET) to 1.25 million by the early 2030s without urgent government action, according to a landmark review led by Alan Milburn, the former Labour health secretary. The report, commissioned by the government and due to be published Thursday, warns of a “lost generation” and calls for a fundamental “system reset” to overhaul education, health, welfare, and jobs support for young people.

Milburn, who was asked by Keir Starmer’s government to lead the review, will describe the current state of affairs as a “catastrophic systems failure.” Speaking ahead of the report’s release, he said ministers had responded with disjointed jobs programmes rather than a cohesive strategy. “My question is: who is joining the dots?” he told The Guardian. “Is it laddering up to a [job market] participation-first service, where everybody is aligned behind the shared objective? Which is that every young person should be given the opportunity to earn or learn. And the answer to that question is: that’s not what’s happening.”

Coverage Comparison

The Guardian’s reporting on the review highlights several distinct angles across its articles. One piece focuses on the immediate scale of the problem, noting that the number of NEETs in the UK has already risen to more than 1 million — the first time it has breached that mark since 2013, according to Office for National Statistics figures for the three months to March. Another article emphasizes the economic cost, citing an estimated financial hit of £125bn a year due to youth worklessness, with the report warning of a “multibillion-pound financial hole” from lost contributions and benefit spending. A third article focuses on the political dimension, particularly Milburn’s agreement with former Prime Minister Tony Blair that Labour policies — including the minimum wage rise and workers’ rights legislation — have made it harder for employers to hire young people.

Across all accounts, the report is described as highly anticipated, running to more than 200 pages and described by people who have read it as exceptionally thorough and hard-hitting. The coverage broadly agrees on the core warnings and the need for urgent action, though there are slight differences in emphasis: some pieces frame the issue as a crisis of the welfare state, while others highlight the government’s own policies as contributing factors.

Key Claims

The following claims have been reported in connection with the Milburn review:

• NEET numbers have risen above 1 million: According to ONS figures cited in The Guardian, the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment, or training in the UK rose to 1,012,000 in the three months to March, the first time it has exceeded one million since 2013.

• Projected rise to 1.25 million by early 2030s: As reported by multiple Guardian articles, the review warns that without urgent intervention, the number of NEETs could rise by 25% to 1.25 million by the early 2030s.

• £125bn annual financial hit: A claim carried in one Guardian article states that the economic cost of youth worklessness is estimated at £125bn a year, including lost contributions and benefit spending. This figure has been attributed to the Milburn review, though it has not been independently verified.

• £8.1bn annual benefit spending on young people: The same article cites government spending of £8.1bn a year on benefits directly for young people, again as stated in the report.

• Third-highest NEET rate among wealthy European countries: The Guardian reports that Britain has the third-highest rate of 16-24-year-olds who are neither earning nor learning among wealthy European countries.

• System failure, not failure of young people: Milburn is quoted as saying, “This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past. Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market.”

• Labour’s previous welfare reform prioritised cost savings: A single Guardian article claims that past Labour attempts at welfare reform focused on cost savings over outcomes for people with health conditions and disabilities, a point attributed to Milburn’s review.

• Minimum wage rise and workers’ rights affect youth hiring: One article reports Milburn agreeing with Tony Blair that some government policies have reduced firms’ willingness to hire young people, specifically mentioning the minimum wage increase and the workers’ rights bill. This claim is attributed to Milburn’s interviews and is not yet independently corroborated.

Perspectives

The Milburn review presents a stark warning about the state of youth opportunity in the UK. Its central argument is that the current system—spanning education, health, welfare, and employment support—is failing many young people, particularly those who have never worked and who may be left on benefits for life. The report’s language is strong, with Milburn using terms like “catastrophic systems failure” and “generational fault line.”

The report also enters politically sensitive territory. It comes after Labour’s previous attempts at welfare reform, which Milburn criticises for prioritising cost savings over outcomes. At the same time, business groups have blamed government policies—including the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions and the equalisation of minimum wages for younger workers—for making it harder to hire young people. Milburn’s agreement with Tony Blair on this point has been highlighted in coverage, adding a layer of internal party tension.

However, any fresh welfare reform attempt may prove divisive, especially after Starmer’s chaotic benefits U-turn last year amid concerns about poverty during the cost-of-living crisis. The report also comes against a backdrop of rising overall unemployment, which has reached its highest levels since the outbreak of the Covid pandemic, with young people bearing the brunt of the downturn.

Milburn acknowledges that recent steps such as Labour’s youth guarantee are welcome, but argues they are not enough without a coherent strategy. The review is due to publish a second report with policy recommendations in the autumn, and it remains to be seen how the government will respond to its call for a “system reset.”