Nuclear risks rise as powers expand and modernise arsenals: SIPRI study

Lead

Global nuclear risks are on the rise as the world's nine nuclear-armed states expand and modernize their arsenals, according to a report released Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The study, covering data through January 2025, warns that these nations are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons, reversing decades of demobilization efforts.

Coverage Comparison

The report has drawn attention from international media, with Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, and France 24 all covering its findings. Each outlet highlights key aspects of the SIPRI study, focusing on the numbers, the modernization trends, and the warning signs from researchers.

Key Claims

The report estimates that the world's nuclear powers—China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—possessed 12,187 warheads as of January 2025, with some 9,745 held in military stockpiles for potential use.

Russia and the United States remain the dominant nuclear powers, together holding approximately 83% of all warheads available for military use, according to SIPRI data cited by multiple outlets. The report also indicates that an estimated 4,012 warheads are deployed with missiles and aircraft, with up to 2,200 kept on high alert, deliverable within minutes—nearly all belonging to Russia or the US, with France and the UK to a lesser extent.

China, however, is said to be modernizing its nuclear forces faster than any other country, with its arsenal rising from about 600 warheads to 620, as reported by Al Jazeera. France 24 also noted that China's expansion is the fastest among the nuclear powers.

France has 290 nuclear warheads, as reported by Deutsche Welle, which also mentioned that France offers nuclear protection to other European countries—though this latter claim was only carried by that outlet.

North Korea is estimated to have potentially assembled some 60 warheads, a figure cited by Al Jazeera and elsewhere, though with some uncertainty.

Perspectives

SIPRI researcher Hans Kristensen summarized the concern: "The evidence is growing that the nuclear weapon states are sidelining, and even walking away from, their disarmament commitments and are instead flexing their nuclear muscles," as quoted by Al Jazeera.

SIPRI Director Karim Haggag, speaking to France 24, said, "The more worrying news is that even though we have lower numbers of nuclear weapons, the level of nuclear dangers and nuclear risks are rising." He also noted the breakdown in strategic arms control and great-power competition as key drivers.

Deutsche Welle reported that the overall stockpile figure—a decrease compared with 2024—does not indicate disarmament. "This trend is likely to be reversed in the coming years", SIPRI researchers wrote, "as the pace of dismantlement is slowing, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating."

Tytti Erasto, a scientist with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction program, told DW that countries like Finland and Sweden have altered nuclear policies after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, becoming involved in NATO nuclear policy and exercises that simulate the use of nuclear weapons.

The report also notes that while the overall number of warheads has declined since the Cold War, the continued modernization programs likely mean that the future of nuclear arsenals will increase in size and diversity, reversing the post-Cold War disarmament.