Conflicting Claims Over North Korean Troop Deployment

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that North Korea intends to deploy up to 50,000 soldiers to Russia, a claim that Pyongyang has categorically denied. In a post on X, Zelensky said "a decision has been made for 30,000 to 50,000 North Koreans to be deployed on the territory of Russia," a figure higher than his earlier estimate of 30,000 in July. He did not elaborate on how he obtained the information.

Zelensky also mentioned that Kyiv had found some North Korean missiles in Ukraine's territory, without disclosing their locations. He warned that "North Korea will continue to build its experience in modern warfare, receive licences from Russia, and receive all kinds of military tools from them." He called on South Korea to provide support for Ukraine's air defence systems, saying, "We are ready to work on the Drone Deal and other areas as well," and noted that Ukrainian diplomats are in contact with Seoul to push potential deals.

North Korea's Denial

Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and a top official in the ruling party, dismissed Zelensky's claim as "groundless" and "a self-staged incident" in a statement published by state media KCNA. She placed responsibility for the outbreak and prolongation of the Ukraine crisis entirely on the United States and the West.

Kim Yo-jong also addressed U.S.-North Korea relations, saying that Washington's "hostile policy" towards Pyongyang has not changed despite President Donald Trump's order to substantially reduce U.S. participation in joint military drills with South Korea. She noted that while the relationship between the leaders of the two countries was "truly great," the U.S. was still carrying out drills with Seoul and threatening North Korea's national security. She added that she was unaware of any recent communications between the leaders, though Trump said on Monday he had received a response from Kim.

South Korean Intelligence Assessment

South Korean military and intelligence assessments have found no signs of an imminent additional deployment of North Korean troops to Russia. Rep. Yoo Yong-won of the main opposition People Power Party cited a report from the South Korean military, and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) stated: "North Korea continues to prepare for deployment, but no sign of an imminent deployment of additional troops has been identified."

A military official confirmed that the North appeared to be internally preparing for the possibility of an additional deployment, but no movement pointing to actual preparations has been detected at the working level. This assessment follows Zelensky's claim last month that Russia was preparing to bring in an additional 30,000 North Korean troops.

The DIA estimated that North Korea has deployed more than 16,000 troops to Russia since October 2024, with many believed killed or injured. Pyongyang is also believed to have provided over 15 million rounds of artillery shells to Russia.

Context: Existing Military Cooperation

North Korea sent an estimated 14,000 soldiers to Russia's Kursk region in 2024 under a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty agreed during Russian President Vladimir Putin's June 2024 visit to Pyongyang. Pyongyang has also supplied Russia with millions of artillery and mortar rounds, ballistic missiles, long-range artillery, and multiple-launch rocket systems, according to Ukrainian and independent assessments.

In a separate development, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un expressed expectations of a "more excellent future" in ties with Russia in a message to Putin, carried by KCNA. He voiced "firm belief" that Russia would accomplish "the sacred cause of defending the sovereignty, security interests and territorial integrity of the country." The message was in response to Putin's congratulatory message marking the 81st anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule.

Perspectives

  • Ukraine (Volodymyr Zelensky): Claims North Korea plans to deploy up to 50,000 troops to Russia, citing a decision made for 30,000 to 50,000. Seeks South Korean support for air defences and warns of North Korea gaining military experience and tools from Russia.
  • North Korea (Kim Yo-jong): Denies the claim as "groundless" and "a self-staged incident," placing responsibility for the Ukraine crisis on the U.S. and West. Also asserts that U.S. hostile policy remains unchanged despite reduced joint drills.
  • South Korea (Military and DIA): Reports no signs of imminent additional deployment, though preparations may continue. Estimates over 16,000 troops already deployed and 15 million artillery shells provided to Russia.