Overview
Russian mining giant Nornickel has reaffirmed its production targets for 2026, even as its first-quarter results showed notable declines in several key metals. The company announced on April 27 that it maintains its previously announced forecast for nickel, copper, palladium, and platinum output for the full year, citing ongoing operational efficiency measures.
According to statements reported by TASS, First Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Evgeny Fyodorov said the company confirms its 2026 metals production forecast at the level previously announced. For the year, Nornickel expects to produce 2.415–2.465 million ounces of palladium and 616,000–636,000 ounces of platinum, along with 193,000–203,000 tons of nickel. Copper production, excluding the Trans-Baikal division, is projected at 336,000–356,000 tons.
Q1 Production Results
In the first quarter of 2026, Nornickel reported mixed results across its metal portfolio. Nickel production held steady at 42,000 tons, unchanged compared to the same period last year. Copper output, however, fell by 10% to 99,000 tons, a decline the company attributes to a higher base effect from the previous year. Excluding the Trans-Baikal division, copper production in Q1 amounted to 80,000 tons.
The Trans-Baikal division bucked the trend, increasing copper production in concentrate by 6% year-on-year to 18,500 tons, driven by higher ore processing volumes and increased metal content in the ore, as per TASS.
Precious metals saw steeper declines. Palladium production dropped 18% in Q1 to 608,000 ounces, while platinum output fell 24% to 136,000 ounces.
Fyodorov explained that after the first quarter, nickel production rose slightly, while output of other metals declined mainly due to the high base effect of the first quarter of last year and the redistribution of commercial product volumes between quarters.
2026 Outlook Confirmed
The company's reaffirmed guidance indicates confidence in meeting its annual targets despite the quarterly fluctuations. The 2026 forecast for palladium and platinum as well as nickel and copper aligns with the figures announced earlier, suggesting that management sees the Q1 declines as temporary and within expected parameters.
Nornickel, a diversified mining and metallurgical company, operates primarily in Russia—including the Norilsk industrial district, the Kola Peninsula, and the Trans-Baikal Territory—as well as in Finland. Its main shareholders are Interros, owned by Vladimir Potanin (37%), and Rusal, founded by Oleg Deripaska (26.39%).
Perspectives
The company's official stance, as conveyed through TASS, frames the Q1 results as a consequence of base effects and inter-quarter volume shifts, with operational efficiency measures underpinning the maintained outlook. Analysts monitoring the metals market may view the declines in palladium and platinum as significant, given their importance to Nornickel's revenue. However, the reaffirmed full-year guidance suggests the company expects these trends to reverse or normalize over the coming quarters.
No independent verification of the production figures or forecasts was available from other outlets, as the reports come solely from TASS, Russia's state news agency.