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Norilsk Nickel forecasts moderate surplus on copper market

Norilsk Nickel projects modest global copper production growth and a moderate surplus through 2027, while seeing the nickel market move toward balance on tighter Indonesian supply controls. Prices for both metals are expected to firm, with copper volatility tied to monetary policy and Middle East tensions.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 outlet · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Jun 23, 2026 Published Aug 14

Norilsk Nickel sees copper surplus narrowing, nickel market rebalancing

Russian mining giant Norilsk Nickel released its global metals market review on June 23, forecasting a moderate surplus in the refined copper market and a gradual rebalancing of the nickel market. The company expects copper production to grow only slightly this year, while nickel consumption rises modestly and supply curbs in Indonesia begin to support prices.

Copper: moderate growth, stable demand

According to Norilsk Nickel, global copper production is projected to increase by 0.4% in 2026 to 23.6 million metric tons, following an estimated 23.5 million tons in 2025, and then rise nearly 4% to 24.5 million tons in 2027. The company attributes supply constraints to the extraction and concentrate production stages.

Key risks cited by Norilsk Nickel include recovery rates at the Grasberg mine, a slower-than-expected recovery at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, infrastructure and logistical constraints in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declining ore grades, and increasing production constraints in Chile and Peru. The availability of sulfuric acid for copper production using SX-EW technology is also flagged as a risk.

The refined copper market is expected to remain in moderate surplus. Norilsk Nickel projects refined copper demand at 28.3 million metric tons in 2026 (+3%) and 29.3 million metric tons in 2027 (+3%), with supply reaching 28.6 million metric tons in 2026 (+1%) and 29.4 million metric tons in 2027 (+3%). This implies a surplus of 0.25 million metric tons in 2026 and 0.16 million metric tons in 2027. The company notes that demand has remained stable despite higher energy prices.

Copper prices have shown increased volatility over the past six months, rising from a December low of $11,285 per ton to a peak of $14,097 per metric ton in mid-May. Norilsk Nickel attributes this to expectations regarding US monetary policy, the situation in the Middle East, and regional imbalances. The company says the impact of the Persian Gulf conflict on the copper market has been predominantly indirect.

Nickel: surplus shrinking, Indonesia key

Norilsk Nickel sees the global nickel market transitioning from surplus to a more balanced state. The company expects global nickel consumption to grow by 2% year-on-year in 2026. It projects the surplus will significantly decrease to about 20,000 metric tons of nickel in 2026, then moderately increase to 55,000 metric tons in 2027. This marks a notable revision from its December review, which had expected the surplus to remain around 200,000 metric tons in 2026 amid continued production growth in Indonesia.

The company anticipates limited demand growth in the stainless steel sector, with more stable growth expected in alloys, special steels, and batteries.

"The global nickel market is showing signs of transitioning from surplus to a more balanced state. Indonesia plays a key role in this process, where measures to curb excess supply are beginning to have a noticeable impact on the market," the review states. Stricter supply controls in Indonesia are contributing to improved price conditions, with prices expected to rise from $14,000–16,000 per metric ton in 2025 to $17,000–19,000 per metric ton.

Norilsk Nickel cautions that the forecast still heavily depends on the situation in Indonesia, including the volume of quotas, their actual utilization, the availability of sulfur, and further regulatory decisions. The company also notes pressure from a sharp rise in sulfur prices, which have increased from about $300 to over $1,000 per metric ton.

Perspectives

Norilsk Nickel

The company presents an optimistic outlook for both metals, emphasizing supply-side constraints and gradual demand growth. For copper, it sees a moderate surplus with stable demand and expects prices to remain supported by volatility drivers. For nickel, it highlights the effectiveness of Indonesian supply curbs in rebalancing the market and lifting prices.

How this outlet told it

TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

Framing: Neutral — Informative

Facts Included:

Norilsk Nickel expects global copper production to grow by 0.4% this year and nearly 4% next year
Stable demand and a moderate copper surplus of 0.25 mln metric tons in 2026 and 0.16 mln metric tons in 2027
Key risks include recovery rates of the Grasberg mine, slower-than-expected recovery of Kamoa-Kakula mine, infrastructure and logistical constraints in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Copper prices have shown increased volatility over the past six months
The impact of the conflict in the Persian Gulf on the copper market has been predominantly indirect

Read the source article →

TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC

Framing: Neutral — Analytical

Facts Included:

Norilsk Nickel sees the global nickel market transitioning to a balance
2% increase in global nickel consumption this year
Significant reduction in the surplus in the nickel market
Limited growth in demand for nickel in the stainless steel sector
Stricter supply controls in Indonesia contributing to an improvement in price conditions

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

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Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimNorilsk Nickel expects global copper production to grow by 0.4% this year and nearly 4% next year, with stable demand and a moderate copper surplus of 0.25 mln metric tons in 2026 and 0.16 mln metric tons in 2027.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
ClaimKey risks include the recovery rates of the Grasberg mine, slower-than-expected recovery of Kamoa-Kakula mine, infrastructure and logistical constraints in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
ClaimCopper prices have shown increased volatility over the past six months.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
ClaimThe impact of the conflict in the Persian Gulf on the copper market has been predominantly indirect.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
ClaimNorilsk Nickel sees the global nickel market transitioning to a balance and anticipates a 2% increase in global consumption this year.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC
ClaimThe surplus in the nickel market will significantly decrease to about 20,000 metric tons of Ni in 2026, after which it will moderately increase to 55,000 metric tons of Ni in 2027.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC
ClaimStricter supply controls in Indonesia are contributing to an improvement in price conditions and an increase in prices from $14,000-16,000 per metric ton in 2025 to $17,000-19,000 per metric ton.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 23, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 outlet · 2 articles consulted: TASS — English 7 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-14