No let-up in Israeli attacks on Lebanon as US-Iran ceasefire teeters

Introduction

A ceasefire announced by the United States between Israel and Iran is teetering as Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, with more than 250 people killed in recent strikes. The truce, announced by President Donald Trump, was meant to pause the broader conflict, but a fundamental disagreement over its scope has emerged: Lebanon, according to Washington, was never included. Yet as British and French officials urge an extension of the ceasefire to Lebanon, and Iran continues to block a vital oil shipping lane, the fragility of the agreement has become evident.

Israel’s Escalation in Lebanon

Israel has carried out some of its heaviest strikes on Lebanon since the conflict began, with the death toll rising to at least 254, according to reports. The Israeli military said the strikes targeted more than 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites across Beirut and other areas. The escalation came despite the ceasefire announcement, which was meant to pause hostilities between Israel and Iran.

Israel’s actions have drawn sharp international criticism. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot condemned what he called “massive strikes” on Lebanon, and British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper described the escalation as “deeply damaging.” Both officials have called for the ceasefire to be extended to cover Lebanon.

Dispute Over the Ceasefire’s Scope

The core point of contention is whether the ceasefire includes Lebanon. US Vice-President J.D. Vance, speaking in Budapest, said the agreement did not cover Lebanon and that the Iranians had misunderstood its scope. “I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t. We never made that promise, we never indicated that was going to be the case,” Vance said.

Iran, however, along with Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator, insists that Lebanon was explicitly part of the deal. Tehran has said there will be no agreement as long as Israel continues to strike Lebanese territory.

British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has been outspoken in demanding that Lebanon be included. In a speech at the Lady Mayor’s Easter Banquet in London, she said: “There must be no return to conflict; Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire; there must be no further threat from Iran to its neighbours; and crucially, the strait of Hormuz must be fully reopened.” Her French counterpart echoed that sentiment, underscoring the international pressure on Israel to halt its operations in Lebanon.

Economic Fallout: The Strait of Hormuz

The conflict has had immediate global economic consequences. Iran has halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. This blockade has driven the price of physical crude oil to record levels, with European and Asian refineries paying nearly $150 per barrel, and even higher for some products like jet fuel.

Cooper stressed the far-reaching impact of the blockade, saying: “More than 3,000 miles away from here – yet the deliberate blocking of this critical artery of the global economy is affecting mortgage rates, petrol and food prices, here at home. Every country on every continent has felt the effects.” She called for the full reopening of the strait and voiced support for the International Maritime Organization’s proposals regarding ships stuck in the waterway.

Upcoming Negotiations and Outlook

Despite the escalating violence, diplomatic efforts continue. Iranian negotiators were expected to travel to Pakistan for the first peace talks of the war, where they are due to meet a US delegation led by Vice-President Vance on Saturday. However, no progress has been made on lifting the Hormuz blockade, and Tehran has reiterated that there will be no deal as long as Israel is striking Lebanon.

The situation remains volatile. The Israeli government maintains that its actions in Lebanon are not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran and Pakistan insist they are. A host of countries, including prominent US allies like Britain and France, have said the truce should extend to Lebanon and have condemned Israel’s attacks.

As the conflict continues to destabilize the region and disrupt global energy markets, the international community is watching closely to see whether the ceasefire can be salvaged and extended to cover Lebanon, or whether the region will slide back into full-scale war.