Campaigning Begins in Nigeria as Voters Confront Economic Hardship
Campaigning kicked off in Nigeria on Wednesday, five months ahead of the presidential election, with voters listing inflation and the state of the economy as their main concerns. The January 16 poll is set to be dominated by the economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu, who is seeking a second term.
"The economy is the biggest issue. That's the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country and it continues to affect security and development concerns," said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of the Nigeria politics newsletter The Bellwether.
Nigerians head to the polls amid a backdrop of a cost-of-living crisis, a weak currency, and persistent insecurity, according to analysts. The country's headline inflation cooled to 15.4 percent in July, a decline from a spike of up to 34 percent in the wake of policy changes, as reported by multiple media outlets.
Tinubu's Reforms and Rising Poverty
President Tinubu, elected in 2023, has pursued a series of ambitious economic policies, including scrapping a costly fuel subsidy and liberalising the currency, drawing praise from economists and investors. However, these same measures have contributed to a higher cost of living for many Nigerians and a devaluation of the naira.
This economic strain has deepened poverty, with more than 60 percent of the population now living below the poverty line, according to World Bank figures cited by news reports. This is a significant increase from 40 percent in 2019, a slide that analysts note pre-dates Tinubu's term.
Civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, 42, said he intends to vote for Tinubu, prioritising the economy. The Nigerian presidency has signalled its intention to "stay the course of reform -- no reversals," promising to accelerate the translation of macroeconomic gains into meaningful impact for every household.
Security Crises and a Divided Opposition
Nigeria is also contending with multiple security challenges, including a jihadist insurgency in the northeast, armed banditry in the northwest, and separatist tensions in the southeast. Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, said violence has been increasing since 2024, driven by the spread of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria and intensified conflict in Borno state.
The political landscape is further complicated by a fragmented opposition. Plans for a united front against the president have collapsed, leaving a divided field. Analysts say this works in favour of Tinubu's All Progressives Congress (APC), which already holds significant power.
"The opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference [in policy]," said Adekaiyaoja.
The Rematch and Voter Apathy
The upcoming poll is set to be a rematch of the 2023 election, with Tinubu facing off against former opponent Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who is running with Rabiu Kwankwaso as his vice-presidential candidate after plans for a united opposition collapsed. In the previous election, Tinubu won with 36.6 percent of the vote, followed by Abubakar with 29 percent and Obi with 25 percent.
With a campaign dominated by economic hardship and violence, voter apathy looms. Turnout in the 2023 election was just 27 percent. Some citizens are choosing to sit out the next vote, citing insecurity and prohibitive travel costs.
"Nigeria is not safe -- terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere," said Becky Alegbe, a street vendor in Abuja who is registered to vote in her home village in Edo State. She said she would not risk the journey due to safety concerns and quintupled transportation costs.
Ahead of the vote, Peter Obi highlighted the need for change, stating, "The next elections must be strictly based on the issues that matter to Nigerians..."
The January vote will also include elections for the national assembly, with gubernatorial polls scheduled for February 6.