Tertius News is an AI-native newsroom: an AI model reads the linked source articles below and extracts what each outlet reported, so you can compare their coverage side by side. How this works →
New information became available — this story may be updated shortly.
NHC Tracking 3 Atlantic Systems; Tropical Development Chances Increase
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave off Africa's coast with a growing chance of becoming a tropical depression, alongside two other Atlantic disturbances. Forecasters note that while none currently threaten the U.S., the season's most active period is approaching, and the next named storm would be called Dolly.
NHC Monitors Three Atlantic Systems as Development Chances Rise
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three disturbances across the Atlantic basin, with the most closely watched being a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression. Forecasters are also monitoring two other systems, though one is expected to dissipate.
The tropical wave, forecast to move off Africa's west coast on Aug. 24 and continue west through the week, has seen its development odds increase. According to the NHC's tropical outlook for Aug. 23, "Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week."
Reports vary on the exact odds for the African wave. Several outlets, including the Gainesville Sun and Herald-Tribune, cite a 48-hour chance near zero percent and a 7-day chance of 50 percent. The Norfolk Virginian-Pilot similarly reported a 50% chance within seven days, up from 40% on Saturday, with the disturbance expected to move west at 15 to 20 mph. Newsweek, however, placed the seven-day odds at roughly 40 percent.
The two other systems under watch include one near Portugal that is expected to fizzle due to unfavorable conditions, and Invest 95L, located southeast of Bermuda, which may see some development as it moves north this week. The Portugal system carries a 10% chance of development over both 48 hours and seven days, according to the NHC. Invest 95L has a 20% chance within 48 hours and a 30% chance within seven days, as reported by the Virginian-Pilot and others. Newsweek described the Portugal-area system as a non-tropical low northeast of the Azores with a 20% seven-day chance, and the Bermuda-area system as having a 10% chance in 48 hours and 20% in seven days — slight differences from the figures cited by other sources.
None of the three systems currently pose a threat to the United States, as reported by Newsweek. If a named storm develops, it would be called Dolly.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far, though the Pacific has been extremely busy, with Hurricane Lala battering Hawaii and Tropical Storm Moke forecast to bring heavy rain and dangerous surf. The contrast between basins is linked to an active El Niño phase, which according to NOAA lowers vertical wind shear and elevates sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, while suppressing Atlantic activity through enhanced upper-level wind shear.
Forecasters emphasize that the Atlantic is entering its most active stretch. Over 60% of the basin's total hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Sept. 30, according to Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger. The traditional peak of the season is Sept. 10, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October. Historically, the fourth-named storm of the season forms Aug. 15, the first hurricane Aug. 11, and the first major hurricane Sept. 1, per NOAA. A major hurricane is Category 3 or stronger, with winds of 111 mph or greater.
AccuWeather, in an updated forecast released Aug. 19, lowered its prediction for named storms this season but warned of three to five direct impacts on the United States. Colorado State University's final outlook also calls for a "well below-normal season," with nine named storms total, including Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal, meaning six additional named storms are expected.
The season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with 97% of tropical activity occurring during that period, according to NOAA. As part of a Trump order, the Gulf of Mexico is now referred to as the Gulf of America in U.S. usage.
Forecasters continue to urge preparedness, noting that it is too early to tell whether the African wave will affect Florida, but the timing aligns with the season's busiest weeks.
How each outlet told it
Gainesville Sun
Framing: Emphasizes possible tropical depression formation and Florida impacts, but doesn't specify timing or odds. — Cautiously informative - 'It's too early to tell whether there will be any affects from the system on Florida, but forecasters say be prepared.'
Facts Included:
NHC monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression.
Forecasters tracking two other Atlantic systems, one near Portugal expected to dissipate and Invest 95L southeast of Bermuda with possible development.
NHC outlook for Aug. 23: 'Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week.'
Formation chances for eastern tropical wave: 48-hour low near zero percent, 7-day medium 50 percent.
Invest 95L: 48-hour 20 percent, 7-day 30 percent; Portugal system: 48-hour and 7-day 10 percent.
If a named storm develops, it would be called Dolly.
AccuWeather updated forecast Aug. 19 lowered named storm predictions; predicts three to five direct U.S. impacts.
Over 60% of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Sept. 30, per Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger.
Historic averages: fourth-named storm Aug. 15, first hurricane Aug. 11, first major hurricane Sept. 1 (NOAA).
Major hurricane defined as Category 3 or stronger (111 mph +).
Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30; 97% of tropical activity occurs then (NOAA).
Includes Gulf of America renaming per Trump order.
Four tropical waves currently being watched with details.
Names for 2026 season with formation dates for Arthur (June 17), Bertha (July 20), Cristobal (Aug. 12).
Framing: Emphasizes possible tropical depression formation and Florida impacts, but doesn't specify timing or odds. — Cautiously informative - 'It's too early to tell whether there will be any affects from the system on Florida, but forecasters say be prepared.'
Facts Included:
NHC monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression.
Forecasters tracking two other Atlantic systems, one near Portugal expected to dissipate and Invest 95L southeast of Bermuda with possible development.
NHC outlook for Aug. 23: 'Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week.'
Formation chances for eastern tropical wave: 48-hour low near zero percent, 7-day medium 50 percent.
Invest 95L: 48-hour 20 percent, 7-day 30 percent; Portugal system: 48-hour and 7-day 10 percent.
If a named storm develops, it would be called Dolly.
AccuWeather updated forecast Aug. 19 lowered named storm predictions; predicts three to five direct U.S. impacts.
Over 60% of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Sept. 30, per Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger.
Historic averages: fourth-named storm Aug. 15, first hurricane Aug. 11, first major hurricane Sept. 1 (NOAA).
Major hurricane defined as Category 3 or stronger (111 mph +).
Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30; 97% of tropical activity occurs then (NOAA).
Includes Gulf of America renaming per Trump order.
Four tropical waves currently being watched with details.
Names for 2026 season with formation dates for Arthur (June 17), Bertha (July 20), Cristobal (Aug. 12).
Framing: Emphasizes possible tropical depression formation and Florida impacts, but doesn't specify timing or odds. — Cautiously informative - 'It's too early to tell whether there will be any affects from the system on Florida, but forecasters say be prepared.'
Facts Included:
NHC monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression.
Forecasters tracking two other Atlantic systems, one near Portugal expected to dissipate and Invest 95L southeast of Bermuda with possible development.
NHC outlook for Aug. 23: 'Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week.'
Formation chances for eastern tropical wave: 48-hour low near zero percent, 7-day medium 50 percent.
Invest 95L: 48-hour 20 percent, 7-day 30 percent; Portugal system: 48-hour and 7-day 10 percent.
If a named storm develops, it would be called Dolly.
AccuWeather updated forecast Aug. 19 lowered named storm predictions; predicts three to five direct U.S. impacts.
Over 60% of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Sept. 30, per Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger.
Historic averages: fourth-named storm Aug. 15, first hurricane Aug. 11, first major hurricane Sept. 1 (NOAA).
Major hurricane defined as Category 3 or stronger (111 mph +).
Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30; 97% of tropical activity occurs then (NOAA).
Includes Gulf of America renaming per Trump order.
Four tropical waves currently being watched with details.
Names for 2026 season with formation dates for Arthur (June 17), Bertha (July 20), Cristobal (Aug. 12).
Framing: Emphasizes NHC tracking and increased development chances, without specifying location or potential impacts. — Analytical and explanatory - describes contrast between basins and scientific reasons.
Facts Included:
NHC monitoring three disturbances across the Atlantic basin.
Tropical wave off Africa with growing chance of development next week.
None of the three systems currently pose a threat to the United States.
WFLA meteorologist Juliana Mejia: 'A tropical wave will likely organize into an area of low pressure shortly after emerging off the coast of Africa in the next few days.'
Northeastern Atlantic system: located several hundred miles northeast of the Azores, 20% chance over seven days.
Central Atlantic system: weak low pressure east-southwest of Bermuda, 10% 48-hour, 20% seven-day.
West Africa wave: 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in seven days.
Season peak on September 10; late August through October most active.
Pacific has been more active: Hurricane Lala battered Hawaii with destructive flooding, damaging winds, power outages; Tropical Storm Moke forecast to bring heavy rain, flooding, dangerous surf.
El Niño phase drives Pacific activity with lower vertical wind shear and elevated sea surface temperatures; same pattern suppresses Atlantic via enhanced upper-level wind shear.
Framing: Emphasizes rising odds for the eastern system and that forecasters are eyeing two other areas, indicating a multi-system watch. — Urgent but measured - highlights odds increase and movement direction, but without alarm.
Facts Included:
Tropical system expected to develop this week in eastern Atlantic and trek west in general direction of Caribbean.
Eastern wave emerged off Africa's west coast on Monday, already 50% chance of developing within seven days, up from 40% on Saturday.
Disturbance expected to move west at 15 to 20 mph across eastern and central Atlantic.
Area southeast of Bermuda: 20% chance in next two days, 30% in seven days.
Third system west of Portugal: 10% chance of developing as of early Sunday; chances likely end by Sunday night.
Next storm to form will be named Dolly.
Colorado State University final prediction: 'well below-normal season', nine named storms total, including Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal; six additional forecast.
Most Atlantic activity between mid-August and mid-October; peak begins Sept. 10; season ends Nov. 30.
Framing: Emphasizes possible tropical depression formation and Florida impacts, but doesn't specify timing or odds. — Cautiously informative - 'It's too early to tell whether there will be any affects from the system on Florida, but forecasters say be prepared.'
Facts Included:
NHC monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression.
Forecasters tracking two other Atlantic systems, one near Portugal expected to dissipate and Invest 95L southeast of Bermuda with possible development.
NHC outlook for Aug. 23: 'Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week.'
Formation chances for eastern tropical wave: 48-hour low near zero percent, 7-day medium 50 percent.
Invest 95L: 48-hour 20 percent, 7-day 30 percent; Portugal system: 48-hour and 7-day 10 percent.
If a named storm develops, it would be called Dolly.
AccuWeather updated forecast Aug. 19 lowered named storm predictions; predicts three to five direct U.S. impacts.
Over 60% of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Sept. 30, per Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger.
Historic averages: fourth-named storm Aug. 15, first hurricane Aug. 11, first major hurricane Sept. 1 (NOAA).
Major hurricane defined as Category 3 or stronger (111 mph +).
Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30; 97% of tropical activity occurs then (NOAA).
Includes Gulf of America renaming per Trump order.
Four tropical waves currently being watched with details.
Names for 2026 season with formation dates for Arthur (June 17), Bertha (July 20), Cristobal (Aug. 12).
Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.
Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimThe National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that could develop into a tropical depression.
ClaimForecasters are tracking two other Atlantic systems besides the African wave, one near Portugal expected to dissipate and Invest 95L southeast of Bermuda with possible development.
ClaimThe NHC outlook for Aug. 23 stated: 'Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week.'
ClaimAccuWeather, in an updated forecast released Aug. 19, lowered its prediction for the number of named storms for the 2026 season and predicted three to five direct impacts on the United States.
ClaimHistorically, the fourth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs Aug. 15, the first hurricane appears Aug. 11, and the first major hurricane develops Sept. 1, according to NOAA.
ClaimThe Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, and 97% of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this period, according to NOAA.
ClaimWFLA meteorologist Juliana Mejia said: 'A tropical wave will likely organize into an area of low pressure shortly after emerging off the coast of Africa in the next few days.'
ClaimAn active El Niño phase has driven the Pacific basin's activity by lowering vertical wind shear and elevating sea surface temperatures, according to NOAA.
ClaimThe eastern tropical wave was expected to emerge off Africa's west coast on Monday and already has a 50% chance of developing within seven days, up from 40% on Saturday.
ClaimColorado State University's final prediction for the season is 'a well below-normal season' with a total of nine named storms, including Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal, meaning six additional named storms are forecast.
ClaimThe National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the coast of Africa on Aug. 24 and continue west through the week.
ClaimThe NHC's tropical outlook map highlights disturbances, which are clusters of storms with some organization but no defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
ClaimAbout 60 tropical waves move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10% to 15% of them develop into a tropical system, according to AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva.