Lead

US officials believe the current round of strikes on Iran could last anywhere from a single day to a month, depending on whether Tehran continues its attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports citing Axios.

Coverage comparison

The duration and intensity of the campaign are subjects of differing assessments across the reports. The Jerusalem Post, citing US officials who spoke with Axios, said the White House is preparing for a multi-day or multi-week exchange of fire with Iran, with the conflict potentially lasting from several days to weeks. TASS — English, also citing Axios, reported that US officials believe the current escalation could last up to a month, noting that "the current escalation could last a day or two, a week or a month," depending on Iran's actions.

Al Jazeera framed the situation as an escalating cycle of attacks, noting that both sides have declared the memorandum of understanding signed in June to be no longer in force, although both have indicated a readiness to pursue diplomacy.

Key claims

The reports agree on several core facts:

  • Ceasefire declared over: US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over on July 8, accusing Tehran of violating bilateral agreements. TASS reported that Trump stated the memorandum of understanding was nullified. The Jerusalem Post also reported Trump's declaration.
  • War timeline: TASS reported that the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon.
  • Iranian response: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would be open only if Tehran's conditions were met, and warned that Washington's threats would not work. The Jerusalem Post quoted Iran's chief negotiator accusing the US of "bullying and breaking promises." Al Jazeera, referring to Ghalibaf as the lead negotiator, quoted him saying Iran was "in an existential war with America" and had no reason to continue adhering to the peace agreement.
  • Conflict duration: As noted above, US officials, as reported by Jerusalem Post and TASS, believe the conflict could last from days to weeks, or up to a month.
  • Economic and political pressures: Al Jazeera reported that Iran's economy has been severely stressed due to US sanctions, and that the US has faced immense pressure in the war and has failed to force Tehran to capitulate. The same report suggested that economic and political pressures could limit both countries from escalating the conflict into another full-scale war.
  • Strait of Hormuz: Jerusalem Post reported that US officials believe the White House has more room to escalate because hundreds of oil tankers have successfully navigated through the Gulf via the strait in recent weeks, easing concerns about an immediate oil price spike. Officials also said Iran saw its leverage in Hormuz slipping as hundreds of ships transited through the southern route close to the Omani coast.