Netanyahu’s haredi gamble may become his biggest election liability - analysis

Netanyahu's Haredi Gamble Backfires as Draft Debate Intensifies

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy of passing a series of laws favorable to the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community at the end of the Knesset's term was intended to cement his alliance with them ahead of October's elections. Instead, according to a report by Herb Keinon in The Jerusalem Post, those very concessions are increasingly looking like a political liability.

The release of a recording in which Rabbi Dov Lando, a prominent haredi leader, accused Religious Zionists who push for haredi conscription of "inciting murder" has only reinforced that danger. Netanyahu publicly criticized Lando's remarks, stating that IDF soldiers deserve profound appreciation and support from every segment of the public. In response, Degel HaTorah, the haredi political party, pushed back against Netanyahu's criticism, warning him against criticizing its rabbinic leadership.

The controversy centers on the issue of military conscription for haredi men, an area where Netanyahu has delivered significant concessions. These include legislation, later blocked by the High Court of Justice, that would have frozen the arrest of haredi draft evaders. By tying himself so closely to the haredi agenda on this issue, Netanyahu may now alienate voters within his own Likud party and right-wing bloc who oppose the exemptions.

In the recording, Rabbi Lando is quoted as saying: "I would ask them, according to their own approach… if the state sends soldiers to war for the honor of the state and people are killed, is that also permitted? That is actual murder. They are inciting murder. They wage wars not only for survival, but for the honor of the state."

The Jerusalem Post notes that Lando appeared to equate encouraging military service with encouraging murder. This has become an electoral burden for Netanyahu, who must balance his coalition's haredi partners with the broader Israeli public's views.

Haredi Leaders Face Their Own 'Total Victory' Problem

A separate analysis by Ari Tatarka in The Jerusalem Post draws a parallel between Netanyahu's wartime promise of "total victory" and the haredi leadership's promise to their constituents of "total draft evasion." Both promises, the report suggests, were unachievable from the outset.

Since October 7 and the subsequent 500-plus days of reserve duty, the report argues that drafting at least some haredi men has become inevitable. Polling data cited in the analysis shows consistently strong public support for ending the exemption, with numbers varying by wording. Around 70% support ending the exemption or drafting haredim, 85% support sanctions on draft dodgers, and 57% support full service for all haredi men.

The haredi leaders, the report says, were faced with a choice: concede and spare most of their community by adopting a line like "those who don't study will be drafted," or double down on opposition. They chose the latter. The decision has ideological and economic logic, the analysis suggests, with the fear being that non-learners who serve might drift away from religious life.

However, this strategy has put haredi leaders on a collision course with Israeli public opinion. As the elections approach, both Netanyahu and the haredi parties are grappling with the consequences of their overpromises.