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Netanyahu strengthens bid for prime minister, Likud overtakes Yashar! ahead of election - poll

Recent polls show Likud overtaking Yashar! in seat projections, while Netanyahu extends his lead as preferred prime minister. The coalition bloc remains unchanged, and a potential new center-right party could reshape the political landscape.

By Tertius News AI Desk 2 outlets · 3 articles Version 1 Coverage Jul 31 – Aug 19, 2026 Published Aug 14

Two recent polls indicate a shift in Israel's political landscape, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party overtaking Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! in seat projections, and Netanyahu widening his lead as the public's choice for prime minister.

Poll Results: Likud Gains Ground

According to a KAN News poll published on Sunday, Likud now polls at 24 seats, up one from the previous week, when the party was tied with Yashar! at 23 seats each. This marks a significant development, as Yashar! had been leading in earlier surveys.

The same poll showed Yair Golan's Democrats rising to 10 mandates, an increase of two from the previous week. Yisrael Beyteinu, led by Avigdor Liberman, also gained one seat, polling at 10 seats. B'Yachad, led by Naftali Bennett, remained steady at 13 seats.

A separate Maariv poll, conducted by Lazar Research in cooperation with Panel4All, found that Likud gained two seats this week, reaching 22, amid Netanyahu's visit to Washington and his meeting with US President Donald Trump. The poll also suggested that a new party led by Benny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Dedi Simchi would receive 3.8% of the vote, equivalent to four seats.

Coalition Bloc Unchanged

Despite Likud's gains, the coalition bloc remained unchanged at 49 seats, according to the Maariv poll. The change bloc also fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, receiving 57 seats. However, the Zionist Home party, led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, crossed the electoral threshold with four seats, potentially giving the bloc a majority.

The KAN poll found that the Zionist opposition bloc polled at 55 seats, three more than the current coalition. The Arab parties, if running together, are expected to receive 8 seats, though a spokesperson for Hadash told The Jerusalem Post that there was "a breakdown in the talks," and the three parties had failed to reach an agreement on running together.

Netanyahu Widens Lead as Preferred Prime Minister

The KAN poll also found that Netanyahu had increased the distance in public opinion as to who is best suited to be Israel's next prime minister. The latest poll showed that 41% of people think Netanyahu would make a better leader than Eisenkot, compared to 34% who think Eisenkot would be better.

Additionally, Netanyahu leads Bennett with 41% to 31%, the same margins as in the previous survey. However, Bennett is close...

How each outlet told it

i24NEWS as of Aug 19, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC

Framing: Emphasizes Eisenkot overtaking Likud and Netanyahu's bloc lacking majority, highlighting weakness of Netanyahu's coalition. — neutral/objective, supported by 'would win' and 'credited with'.

Facts Included:

Poll conducted by Kantar Israel for Kan Reshet Bet
Yashar! would win 24 seats, Likud 23
Together party third with 14 seats
Democrats win 10 seats
Otzma Yehudit and Israel Beiteinu each win nine seats
United Torah Judaism eight, Shas seven
Hadash-Ta'al six seats, Ra'am and Religious Zionist Party five each
Netanyahu's current coalition would win 52 seats, far from 61 needed
Center-left bloc would reach 57 seats, Arab parties 11
Mansour Abbas expressed support for participating in center-left government
Eli Cohen tops Likud Knesset list (in related link, not in body)

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Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC

Framing: Emphasizes Netanyahu strengthening his bid for prime minister and Likud overtaking Yashar!; omits that coalition bloc still lacks majority. — optimistic for Netanyahu, supported by 'strengthens bid' and 'increased the distance'.

Facts Included:

Poll published by KAN News on Sunday
Likud polls at 24 seats, Yashar! at 23 seats
Democrats rose to 10 seats from eight
Yisrael Beyteinu rose by one seat to 10
B'Yachad polls at 13 seats
Arab parties of Hadash, Ta'al, Balad failed to reach agreement; spokesperson for Hadash told The Jerusalem Post there was 'a breakdown in the talks'
If Yoav Segalovitz joins Ra'am, Arab parties total 13 seats, weakening Netanyahu's bloc to 52
Zionist opposition bloc polls at 55 seats
41% think Netanyahu better leader than Eisenkot, 34% for Eisenkot
Netanyahu leads Bennett 41% to 31%
Bennett closing gap with Eisenkot: 31% to 20%
23% of opposition voters considered leaving country vs 6% of coalition voters; almost 70% not concerned
Poll surveyed 551 people aged 18 and over
Keshet Neev contributed to this report

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Jerusalem Post as of Jul 31, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC

Framing: Emphasizes Eisenkot leading Netanyahu by 10 points and Likud gaining seats, focusing on personal leadership and party gains; omits coalition implications. — analytical/speculative, supported by 'could gain four seats' and 'possible effect'.

Facts Included:

Maariv poll conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4All
Likud rose to 22 seats, gaining two seats
Poll conducted amid Netanyahu's visit to Washington, meeting with Trump, and campaign against Democrats
Coalition bloc remained unchanged at 49 seats
Change bloc received 57 seats, short of 61 needed
Zionist Home party crossed threshold with four seats
New party led by Benny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, Dedi Simchi would receive 3.8% (four seats)
New party would push Tropper and Hendel's party below threshold with 2.4%
In that scenario, coalition bloc gains one seat to 50, opposition loses one to 56, Arab parties at 10
45% of opposition voters prefer Eisenkot to lead center-left, Bennett 25%, Liberman 11%, Golan 10%
Bennett leads Netanyahu 44% to 39% as preferred PM
Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 48% to 38%, largest gap recorded
Netanyahu leads Liberman 43% to 39%
Poll conducted July 29-30 among 501 respondents, Jews and Arabs, max sampling error 4.4%

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What was claimed, and who backed it

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimLikud has overtaken Yashar! in the polls. Likud polls at 24 seats compared to 23 for Yashar!	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC
ClaimYair Golan's Democrats rose to a total of 10 mandates, compared to eight in the previous week's poll.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC
ClaimYisrael Beyteinu, led by Avigdor Liberman, rose by one seat, also polling at 10 seats.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC
ClaimB'Yachad, led by Naftali Bennett, polled the same as the previous week, with 13 seats.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC
ClaimIf the Arab parties of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad formed a joint list, they are expected to receive 8 seats.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC
ClaimNetanyahu increased lead as candidate for next prime minister.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC
Claim41% of people think Netanyahu would make a better leader than Eisenkot.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Aug 10, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC
ClaimA Maariv poll found that Likud rose to 22 seats.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via Jerusalem Post as of Jul 31, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimBenny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Dedi Simchi could win four seats with a new party.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Jul 31, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimThe coalition bloc remained unchanged at 49 seats.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Jul 31, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimThe change bloc fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, receiving 57 seats.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Jul 31, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimThe Zionist Home party crossed the electoral threshold with four seats.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Jerusalem Post as of Jul 31, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 outlet · 2 articles consulted: Jerusalem Post 12 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-14